CAJ | 학술논문

2011年11月，联合国教科文组织政府间海洋学委员会(IOC/UNESCO)发起了代号为“Exercise Pacific Wave 11”的跨国海啸演习，演习区域为整个太平洋海区。中国应邀参加了本次演习，演习在我国海域地震带上假设了两个震源，分别位于琉球海沟和马尼拉海沟。为了评估这两个潜在海啸对我国的影响，本文采用数值模拟的方式，对其进行了计算。计算结果表明：这两处震源所引发的海啸均能对我国造成灾害性影响，受影响严重的省市有江苏、上海、浙江、福建、广东和海南等；从传播时间图上看，若发生大海啸，海啸波将在5h内，陆续影响沿海各省市；相比琉球海沟，马尼拉海沟震源产生的海啸会更快到达我国沿岸。
2011년11월，연합국교과문조직정부간해양학위원회(IOC/UNESCO)발기료대호위“Exercise Pacific Wave 11”적과국해소연습，연습구역위정개태평양해구。중국응요삼가료본차연습，연습재아국해역지진대상가설료량개진원，분별위우류구해구화마니랍해구。위료평고저량개잠재해소대아국적영향，본문채용수치모의적방식，대기진행료계산。계산결과표명：저량처진원소인발적해소균능대아국조성재해성영향，수영향엄중적성시유강소、상해、절강、복건、엄동화해남등；종전파시간도상간，약발생대해소，해소파장재5h내，륙속영향연해각성시；상비류구해구，마니랍해구진원산생적해소회경쾌도체아국연안。
Exercise Pacific Wave 11 organized by IOC/UNESCO was conducted in November 2011. The drill area included the whole Pacific area and China took part in this tsunami drill. Two earthquake focuses were assumed to be in China sea area, which lied in Ryukyu Trench and Manila Trench respectively. The COMCOT (Cornell Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami) model developed by Cornell University and the CTTT (China Tsunami Travel Time)model developed by National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center were used to evaluate the influence of the two potential tsunamis on our country. The results showed that these two tsunamis could cause great disaster in China. The cities which might be seriously affected included Jiangsu, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Fujian, Guangdong and Hainan. According to the figure of travel time, if tsunami happens, it could reach China coastal area in 5 hours. The tsunami from Manila Trench travels faster than the one from Ryukyu Trench.