CAJ | 학술논문

害虫发生量分析是害虫预测预报与综合防治的前提。在分析棉铃虫二代成虫来源及产卵去向的基础上，区分省份与年份，以我国6省1997~2006年玉米等4种非棉花寄主上三代棉铃虫幼虫密度为响应变量，选取棉花寄主上的二代虫卵密度、Bt棉种植面积、玉米种植面积等23个自变量，建立了多变量支持向量回归（Support Vector Regression，SVR）非线性模型。首先根据均方误差（mean square error，MSE）最小原则对23个自变量实施非线性多轮末尾淘汰，获得与害虫发生量相关的重要因素；然后通过保留因子构建棉铃虫发生量非线性回归模型，并以基于F检验的SVR非线性解释性体系验证了模型的显著性，模型R2=0.9012；最后分析保留因子的显著性和单因子效应，展示了各保留因子对棉铃虫发生量的影响。
해충발생량분석시해충예측예보여종합방치적전제。재분석면령충이대성충래원급산란거향적기출상，구분성빈여년빈，이아국6성1997~2006년옥미등4충비면화기주상삼대면령충유충밀도위향응변량，선취면화기주상적이대충란밀도、Bt면충식면적、옥미충식면적등23개자변량，건립료다변량지지향량회귀（Support Vector Regression，SVR）비선성모형。수선근거균방오차（mean square error，MSE）최소원칙대23개자변량실시비선성다륜말미도태，획득여해충발생량상관적중요인소；연후통과보류인자구건면령충발생량비선성회귀모형，병이기우F검험적SVR비선성해석성체계험증료모형적현저성，모형R2=0.9012；최후분석보류인자적현저성화단인자효응，전시료각보류인자대면령충발생량적영향。
Analysis of emergence size in pest management is the prerequisite for pest forecast and integrated control. Based on studying the source of second generation cotton bollworm adult and the distribution of their eggs, the multivariate nonlinear Support Vector Regression (SVR) model was established with taking density of third generation cotton bollworm larvae on four kinds of non-cotton hosts such as corn in the six provinces of north China from 1997 to 2006 as response variables, and 23 independent variables including density of second generation eggs on cotton host, planting area of Bt cotton, corn planting area etc. were selected as independent variables. Single province in each year was deemed as a sample in building these models. Firstly, with minimum principle of mean square error (MSE), nonlinear multi-round screening was implemented to the 23 independent variables, and the important factors associated with emergence size in pest management were obtained. Then on the basis of retained factors, the nonlinear regression SVR model of emergence size of cotton bollworm was established and the R2=0.901 2;meanwhile, the significance of the SVR model was verified by the non-linear interpretive system based on F test. Finally, the significance and the single factor effect of the retained factors were analyzed, and the results indicated the influence of each retained factor on emergence size of cotton bollworm.