海洋学报(中文版)
海洋學報(中文版)
해양학보(중문판)
ACTA OCEANOLOGICA SINICA
2014年
3期
61-72
,共12页
IPCC-AR4模式%西北太平洋热带气旋%动力环境场%模拟评估
IPCC-AR4模式%西北太平洋熱帶氣鏇%動力環境場%模擬評估
IPCC-AR4모식%서북태평양열대기선%동력배경장%모의평고
IPCC-AR4 models%western North Pacific tropical cyclone%dynamic environment%simulation assess-ment
评估了23个IPCC-AR4模式在低纬地区1948-1999年7-9月大尺度环流场的模拟性能,重点关注西北太平洋区域的西太副高、季风槽以及台风活动海域的垂直风切变。结果显示,绝大多数模式的7-9月低纬地区500 hPa平均高度场、850 hPa风场空间分布与NCEP都具有很高的相似性,但大多模式500 hPa高度场存在系统性偏低,而850 hPa风场偏强。所有模式模拟的西北太平洋副高脊线与NCEP都有一致的西南-东北走向,但有些模式的脊线位置偏离NCEP的较远。有4个模式没有模拟出类似于NCEP的季风槽线。综合模式对夏季热带环流场、西北太平洋副热带高压、季风槽以及西北太平洋热带气旋活动关键区域垂直风切变气候特征的模拟性能,按性能优劣,排在前10的模式依次是mpi_echam5、cccma_t63、gfdl_cm2_1、cnrm_cm3、cccma_t47、ukmo_hadgem1、ingv_echam4、ncar_ccsm3_0、csiro_mk3_5、mri_cgcm2_3_2a;排在后6位的模式是inmcm3_0、iap_fgoals1_0_g、ipsl_cm4、miroc3_2_medres、giss_eh、giss_er。
評估瞭23箇IPCC-AR4模式在低緯地區1948-1999年7-9月大呎度環流場的模擬性能,重點關註西北太平洋區域的西太副高、季風槽以及檯風活動海域的垂直風切變。結果顯示,絕大多數模式的7-9月低緯地區500 hPa平均高度場、850 hPa風場空間分佈與NCEP都具有很高的相似性,但大多模式500 hPa高度場存在繫統性偏低,而850 hPa風場偏彊。所有模式模擬的西北太平洋副高脊線與NCEP都有一緻的西南-東北走嚮,但有些模式的脊線位置偏離NCEP的較遠。有4箇模式沒有模擬齣類似于NCEP的季風槽線。綜閤模式對夏季熱帶環流場、西北太平洋副熱帶高壓、季風槽以及西北太平洋熱帶氣鏇活動關鍵區域垂直風切變氣候特徵的模擬性能,按性能優劣,排在前10的模式依次是mpi_echam5、cccma_t63、gfdl_cm2_1、cnrm_cm3、cccma_t47、ukmo_hadgem1、ingv_echam4、ncar_ccsm3_0、csiro_mk3_5、mri_cgcm2_3_2a;排在後6位的模式是inmcm3_0、iap_fgoals1_0_g、ipsl_cm4、miroc3_2_medres、giss_eh、giss_er。
평고료23개IPCC-AR4모식재저위지구1948-1999년7-9월대척도배류장적모의성능,중점관주서북태평양구역적서태부고、계풍조이급태풍활동해역적수직풍절변。결과현시,절대다수모식적7-9월저위지구500 hPa평균고도장、850 hPa풍장공간분포여NCEP도구유흔고적상사성,단대다모식500 hPa고도장존재계통성편저,이850 hPa풍장편강。소유모식모의적서북태평양부고척선여NCEP도유일치적서남-동북주향,단유사모식적척선위치편리NCEP적교원。유4개모식몰유모의출유사우NCEP적계풍조선。종합모식대하계열대배류장、서북태평양부열대고압、계풍조이급서북태평양열대기선활동관건구역수직풍절변기후특정적모의성능,안성능우렬,배재전10적모식의차시mpi_echam5、cccma_t63、gfdl_cm2_1、cnrm_cm3、cccma_t47、ukmo_hadgem1、ingv_echam4、ncar_ccsm3_0、csiro_mk3_5、mri_cgcm2_3_2a;배재후6위적모식시inmcm3_0、iap_fgoals1_0_g、ipsl_cm4、miroc3_2_medres、giss_eh、giss_er。
The fidelity of atmospheric circulation over tropical regions ,especially subtropical high ,monsoon trough and vertical wind shear over the regions of tropical cyclone activity in the coupled general circulation models (CGCM) participating in the Forth Assessment Report (AR4) of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)is accessed by virtue of comparing simulated climate field with that of National Center Environmental Pre-diction(NCEP)/National Center Atmospheric Research (NCAR) during 1948-1999 from July to September. It is found that vast majority of 23 IPCC-AR4 models show a good performance in mean state in 500 hPa height field over the domain 0°-40°N ,0°E-180°-0°W and 850 hPa wind field over the region 20°S-40°N ,0°E-180°-0°W-180°-0°W ,but in comparison to that of NCEP/NCAR ,most of models show a low bias in 500 hPa height and a strong bias in 850 hPa wind flow.The subtropical high ridge over the western North Pacific of all models is in NE-SW orientation which is similar to that of NCEP/NCAR ,but some of models'ridge locates to far away from the latter. Monsoon troughs of four models are absent from 850 hPa flow and six of monsoon troughs in models occur to the west of 140°E. According to the performance of simulation in spatial structure of atmospheric circulation over tropical area ,subtropical high ridge ,monsoon trough in the western North Pacific and vertical wind shear in active regions of tropical cyclone over western North Pacific in summer ( from July to September) ,the first ten excellent models are successively mpi_echam5、cccma_t63、gfdl_cm2_1、cnrm_cm3、cccma_t47、ukmo_had-gem1、ingv_echam4、ncar_ccsm3_0、csiro_mk3_5、mri_cgcm2_3_2a and the last six models are successively inmcm3_0、iap_fgoals1_0_g、ipsl_cm4、miroc3_2_medres、giss_eh、giss_er.