CAJ | 학술논문

基于中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学国家重点实验室（LASG/IAP）发展的气候系统模式FGOALS＿gl对20世纪太平洋海温变化的模拟，讨论了自然因子和人为因子对20世纪太平洋海温变化的相对贡献。观测资料表明，20世纪太平洋平均的SST变化主要分为3个时段：20世纪上半叶的增暖，40-70年代的微弱变冷，70年代之后的迅速增暖。20世纪太平洋SST变化的主导模态是全海盆尺度的振荡上升模态，其次为PDO振荡型，在70年代末PDO存在明显的年代际转型。通过全强迫试验、自然强迫试验、控制试验对上述现象进行归因分析，结果表明，人为因子和内部变率都对第一次增暖有贡献，而人类活动（主要是温室气体的增加）是70年代之后太平洋SST迅速增暖的主要原因。分区域来看，在两个增暖时段中，影响黑潮延伸体区SST变化的主要是自然因子和内部变率，影响其它海域SST变化的则主要是人为因子。全强迫试验可以较好的模拟出前两个模态的空间分布及时间序列。在没有人为因子的影响下，PDO成为太平洋海温变化的主导模态，其年代际转变发生在60年代中期，意味着人为因子是全海盆振荡增暖的主导原因，并且它使得年代际转型滞后了10 a。因此，自然因子是导致SST年代际转型中的主导因子，人为因子有“调谐”作用。
기우중국과학원대기물리연구소대기과학화지구류체역학국가중점실험실（LASG/IAP）발전적기후계통모식FGOALS＿gl대20세기태평양해온변화적모의，토론료자연인자화인위인자대20세기태평양해온변화적상대공헌。관측자료표명，20세기태평양평균적SST변화주요분위3개시단：20세기상반협적증난，40-70년대적미약변랭，70년대지후적신속증난。20세기태평양SST변화적주도모태시전해분척도적진탕상승모태，기차위PDO진탕형，재70년대말PDO존재명현적년대제전형。통과전강박시험、자연강박시험、공제시험대상술현상진행귀인분석，결과표명，인위인자화내부변솔도대제일차증난유공헌，이인류활동（주요시온실기체적증가）시70년대지후태평양SST신속증난적주요원인。분구역래간，재량개증난시단중，영향흑조연신체구SST변화적주요시자연인자화내부변솔，영향기타해역SST변화적칙주요시인위인자。전강박시험가이교호적모의출전량개모태적공간분포급시간서렬。재몰유인위인자적영향하，PDO성위태평양해온변화적주도모태，기년대제전변발생재60년대중기，의미착인위인자시전해분진탕증난적주도원인，병차타사득년대제전형체후료10 a。인차，자연인자시도치SST년대제전형중적주도인자，인위인자유“조해”작용。
Contributions of natural and anthropogenic forcings to the twentieth-century Pacific sea surface tempera-ture (SST) decadal variability are evaluated with a climate system model named FGOALS_gl developed by LASG/IAP .The observational data shows that there are three typical periods of the twentieth-century Pacific SST varia-bility :a warming tendency in the early twentieth-century ,the weak cooling during 1940s-1970s and the strong warming trend after the 1970s .The first leading mode of the twentieth-century Pacific SST variability features an oscillatorily warming in the whole Pacific basin ,and the second one appears as Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) with a significant inter-decadal transition in the late-1970s .The simulations support that the early stage warming is resulted from a combination of the anthropogenic forcing and the internal variability .And the pronounced late twentieth-century warming is dominated by the increase of greenhouse gases (GHGs) forcing .During the two war-ming periods of the twentieth-century ,the natural forcing and internal variability dominate the changes in Kuroshio Extension (KE) region ,and the anthropogenic forcing dominates the changes in other parts of Pacific .The first two leading modes of the twentieth-century Pacific SST variability can be reproduced by the all-forcing run .The PDO would become the dominant mode and the inter-decadal transition would take place in the mid-1960s if the an-thropogenic forcing is not included .These results indicate that the anthropogenic forcing dominates the warming in the whole Pacific basin and leads to a 10 a delay of the inter-decadal transition .Therefore ,the inter-decadal transi-tion of PDO phase is caused by natural forcing ,while the anthropogenic forcing can modulate the transition point .