CAJ | 학술논문

依托上海市南北高架西侧的交通流数据，引入生存分析方法，建立基于风险的交通拥堵持续时间模型。其根据大量交通拥堵样本的时间属性，采用Kaplan-M eyer非参数回归模型定量估计拥堵持续时间，并按星期数、高峰时段、数据年限、样本位置和天气划分五类影响因素，从生存函数和危险函数两个方面，分析拥堵持续时间的时空分布特性。结果表明上海市南北高架西侧的交通拥堵持续时间70％能在1小时内消散，在不同类别的影响因素下分布特性存在明显差异。
의탁상해시남북고가서측적교통류수거，인입생존분석방법，건립기우풍험적교통옹도지속시간모형。기근거대량교통옹도양본적시간속성，채용Kaplan-M eyer비삼수회귀모형정량고계옹도지속시간，병안성기수、고봉시단、수거년한、양본위치화천기화분오류영향인소，종생존함수화위험함수량개방면，분석옹도지속시간적시공분포특성。결과표명상해시남북고가서측적교통옹도지속시간70％능재1소시내소산，재불동유별적영향인소하분포특성존재명현차이。
Based on the historical traffic data of the west-side North-South Viaduct in Shanghai ,this paper introduces survival analysis into the analysis of traffic congestion mechnism ,and a hazard-based traffic congestion duration time model is presentd .This model analyzes the time attributes of many traffic congestion samples ,and employs nonparametric regression-based Kaplan-Meyer model to esti-mate traffic congestion duration time .Then ,the key influence factors of traffic congestion are divided into five types including weekdays ,peak time ,data year ,location and weather ,and the spatial-tem-poral distribution characteristics of traffic congestion duration time is analyzed .Analsis results has shown that the 70% of traffic congestion durations on road segments of west-side North-South Via-duct are no longer than an hour ,and there exists significant difference of distribution characteristics under different influence factors .