工程管理学报
工程管理學報
공정관이학보
CONSTRUCTION MANAGEMENT MODERNIZATION
2014年
1期
46-50
,共5页
重大水利工程%社会风险%风险扩散路径%SIR模型
重大水利工程%社會風險%風險擴散路徑%SIR模型
중대수리공정%사회풍험%풍험확산로경%SIR모형
major water conservancy projects%social risks%risk diffusion path%SIR model
重大水利工程项目建设可能引发社会风险而不利于工程建设和社会发展，这些风险是通过一定的风险扩散机制而最终发生的。考虑到民众对其利益受损及补偿程度估量的差异性，将重大水利工程建设的利益相关者划分为：不满者、抵触者及支持者，探讨重大水利工程项目建设引发的社会风险扩散机制，基于 SIR 模型构建了重大水利工程建设社会风险扩散模型研究其风险扩散路径，得出在社会风险发生之前采取有效的预控措施是控制社会风险扩散的最优选择。并根据模型的分析提出了3点对策，即建立完备的信息共享机制、建立健全的利益补偿与社会保障机制以及建立完善的风险应急预案。
重大水利工程項目建設可能引髮社會風險而不利于工程建設和社會髮展，這些風險是通過一定的風險擴散機製而最終髮生的。攷慮到民衆對其利益受損及補償程度估量的差異性，將重大水利工程建設的利益相關者劃分為：不滿者、牴觸者及支持者，探討重大水利工程項目建設引髮的社會風險擴散機製，基于 SIR 模型構建瞭重大水利工程建設社會風險擴散模型研究其風險擴散路徑，得齣在社會風險髮生之前採取有效的預控措施是控製社會風險擴散的最優選擇。併根據模型的分析提齣瞭3點對策，即建立完備的信息共享機製、建立健全的利益補償與社會保障機製以及建立完善的風險應急預案。
중대수리공정항목건설가능인발사회풍험이불리우공정건설화사회발전，저사풍험시통과일정적풍험확산궤제이최종발생적。고필도민음대기이익수손급보상정도고량적차이성，장중대수리공정건설적이익상관자화분위：불만자、저촉자급지지자，탐토중대수리공정항목건설인발적사회풍험확산궤제，기우 SIR 모형구건료중대수리공정건설사회풍험확산모형연구기풍험확산로경，득출재사회풍험발생지전채취유효적예공조시시공제사회풍험확산적최우선택。병근거모형적분석제출료3점대책，즉건립완비적신식공향궤제、건립건전적이익보상여사회보장궤제이급건립완선적풍험응급예안。
Research on the diffusion mechanism and diffusion path of social risk has great significance to preventing social conflicts caused by major water conservancy projects. It is also meaningful to create a good environment of engineering and promote the stable development of society. Construction of major water conservancy projects"reset"the distribution pattern of the relevant stakeholders,which may result in social conflicts caused by social contradictions. Considering people’s different assessments on the degree of their damaged interests and compensation,we firstly divide the stakeholders of the major water conservancy construction into three parts--malcontents,people in conflicts and supporters,and then analyze the mechanism of the spread of major water conservancy constructions’ social risk,finally build a diffusion model of social risk of major water conservancy construction based on SIR model. Through a deep study of the model,we analyze the social risk diffusion path,and then obtain the diffusion profile and diffusion path graph,so that we can see the result that taking effective pre-control measures in advance to control the spread of the social risk is the optimal choice. Therefore,we should establish the information sharing mechanism,the benefit compensation and social security system;last but not least,we can establish perfect risk emergency plan.
