CAJ | 학술논문

建筑业作为支柱产业，科学预测对其发展具有重要意义。单一评价模型因其各自局限性无法提高预测精确度，多种模型相结合评价较有优势，将无偏理论与模糊集合引入传统灰色马尔可夫预测模型，从拟合度和状态模糊集分类方面改进无偏灰色模糊马尔可夫模型。基于重庆1991～2011年建筑业产值，对其市场趋势进行预测分析，详细阐述该方法在建筑业产值预测中运用，定性分析预测结果，对建筑业发展历史及近期趋势进行检验和预判。
건축업작위지주산업，과학예측대기발전구유중요의의。단일평개모형인기각자국한성무법제고예측정학도，다충모형상결합평개교유우세，장무편이론여모호집합인입전통회색마이가부예측모형，종의합도화상태모호집분류방면개진무편회색모호마이가부모형。기우중경1991～2011년건축업산치，대기시장추세진행예측분석，상세천술해방법재건축업산치예측중운용，정성분석예측결과，대건축업발전역사급근기추세진행검험화예판。
Construction industry is a pillar industry in China. Scientific prediction is of great significance to its development. Single evaluation model cannot improve the prediction accuracy because of its respective limitations. The evaluation through a variety of models combined together has an advantage,thus,the unbiased grey theory and fuzzy classification have been introduced into the traditional grey-Markov models. Unbiased grey-fuzzy Markov model is improved through the aspects of fitting degree and state classification of fuzzy set. Based on construction industry output value from 1991 to 2011 in Chongqing,this paper forecasts the market trend analysis,and elaborates the method used in the construction industry output value forecast. Through qualitative analysis of prediction results of the method,this paper gives a inspection and an anticipation about history and recent development of construction.