CAJ | 학술논문

利用阿勒泰地区8个观测站1954～2010年气候观测资料，应用数理统计方法，分析近57 a的冰雹灾害气候特征，用Mann-Kendall法判断冰雹气候突变得出以下结论：年际变化存在3～5 a震荡周期，总体呈递减趋势；1996年后，冰雹灾害发生频率显著降低，初步分析与气候突变有关。冰雹的季节变化特征显著，夏季频次高，秋季次之，冬季最少。冰雹灾害持续时间一般维持在10 min左右，其中持续时间＜5 min的占总次数61．2％，持续时间＜10 min的占89．3％，持续时间＞30 min占1．5％。落区分布规律：吉木乃、阿勒泰、青河居多，其他县市较少，福海最少。冰雹与地形、海拔高度关系密切，随海拔高度升高，冰雹日数呈对数关系增长。依据信息扩散理论方法，对冰雹危险性区划显示，阿勒泰地区西部沿布尔津-吉木乃一线梯度最大，北部、东部沿山一带危险性大，中部、南部的两河流域风险较小。
이용아륵태지구8개관측참1954～2010년기후관측자료，응용수리통계방법，분석근57 a적빙박재해기후특정，용Mann-Kendall법판단빙박기후돌변득출이하결론：년제변화존재3～5 a진탕주기，총체정체감추세；1996년후，빙박재해발생빈솔현저강저，초보분석여기후돌변유관。빙박적계절변화특정현저，하계빈차고，추계차지，동계최소。빙박재해지속시간일반유지재10 min좌우，기중지속시간＜5 min적점총차수61．2％，지속시간＜10 min적점89．3％，지속시간＞30 min점1．5％。락구분포규률：길목내、아륵태、청하거다，기타현시교소，복해최소。빙박여지형、해발고도관계밀절，수해발고도승고，빙박일수정대수관계증장。의거신식확산이론방법，대빙박위험성구화현시，아륵태지구서부연포이진-길목내일선제도최대，북부、동부연산일대위험성대，중부、남부적량하류역풍험교소。
Based on the meteorological data from eight observation stations in the Aletai region from 1954 to 2010,the characteristic of hail disasters was analyzed by using mathematical statistics method and Mann-Kendall test.Results show that the interannual variation of hail had a 3-5 years oscillation cycle and presented decreasing trend on the whole.After the year of 1996,the hail frequency de-creased significantly,which might be related to the abrupt change of climate.The seasonal variation of hail disasters was obvious with high frequency in summer and little occurrence in winter.The hail duration generally remained about 10 min,and the duration less than 5 min,10 min accounted for 61.2% and 89.3%,respectively,while the duration more than 30 min accounted only for 1.5%. The hail occurred more in Jimunai,Aletai,Qinghe and less in other counties,and little in Fuhai.The occurrence of hail was closely related to topography and altitude,with the increasing of altitude,the hail times presented logarithmic increasing trend.The gradient of the west of Aletai,Buerjin towards to Jimunai was the largest,and there was high risk in the north and east region of Altai Mountains, while less risk in the central and southern area.