CAJ | 학술논문

输电网扩展规划时要对方案的经济性进行评估，而输电网的收益主要取决于过网费和输电线路上通过的功率量。提出了一种估算未来输电线路流量的概率潮流方法，帮助电网规划人员评价方案的经济效益。该方法充分考虑未来负荷概率分布、负荷间相关性、发电机停运概率以及机组经济调度等不确定性因素，采用蒙特卡罗抽样方法，建立了未来线路过网流量的计算模型。基于该方法，可有效分析线路过网收入，进而更准确地计算出规划方案的经济效益指标，如净现值、内部收益率、投资回报期等，指导电网规划方案的经济评估。New England测试系统的案例分析验证了上述方法的有效性与应用价值。
수전망확전규화시요대방안적경제성진행평고，이수전망적수익주요취결우과망비화수전선로상통과적공솔량。제출료일충고산미래수전선로류량적개솔조류방법，방조전망규화인원평개방안적경제효익。해방법충분고필미래부하개솔분포、부하간상관성、발전궤정운개솔이급궤조경제조도등불학정성인소，채용몽특잡라추양방법，건립료미래선로과망류량적계산모형。기우해방법，가유효분석선로과망수입，진이경준학지계산출규화방안적경제효익지표，여정현치、내부수익솔、투자회보기등，지도전망규화방안적경제평고。New England측시계통적안례분석험증료상술방법적유효성여응용개치。
It is necessary to conduct economical assessment on the planned scheme during the development of transmission network expansion planning. In view of the fact that the revenue of transmission network is largely depended on the wheeling charge and the flow rate flowing through the transmission lines, a probabilistic power flow method to estimate the flow rate of the future transmission line is proposed to assist the power network planner in assessment of economy benefit of the planning scheme. Considering such uncertain factors as probabilistic distribution of future load, correlativity among loads, probability of generator outage and unit commitment and utilizing Monte Carlo sampling method, a calculation model for the wheeling flow rate passing through the future transmission line is built. Based on the proposed method, the income from wheeling charge can be effectively analyzed, and further the economic benefit index such as net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR) and pay back time (PBT) can be calculated to guide the economic assessment of power network planning scheme. The effectiveness and application value of the proposed method are validated by the results of case analysis of New England testing system.