CAJ | 학술논문

针对目前新疆房地产投资REI的发展现状及存在的问题，运用协整分析、建立误差修正模型及格兰杰因果关系检验等方法，定量分析了1991年至2010年新疆房地产投资R E I对经济增长之间的关系，并提出相应的对策和建议。结果表明：新疆房地产投资REI与经济增长之间存在着长期稳定的均衡关系；新疆房地产投资REI与新疆GDP之间存在着双向因果关系；新疆房地产投资REI的变化对经济增长有短期影响。因此，必须审慎处理新疆房地产投资的规模和结构中存在的问题，加强宏观调控力度，控制投资规模，多元化投资主体，优化房地产投资资本结构，从而使新疆房地产产业与国民经济协调、健康发展。
침대목전신강방지산투자REI적발전현상급존재적문제，운용협정분석、건립오차수정모형급격란걸인과관계검험등방법，정량분석료1991년지2010년신강방지산투자R E I대경제증장지간적관계，병제출상응적대책화건의。결과표명：신강방지산투자REI여경제증장지간존재착장기은정적균형관계；신강방지산투자REI여신강GDP지간존재착쌍향인과관계；신강방지산투자REI적변화대경제증장유단기영향。인차，필수심신처리신강방지산투자적규모화결구중존재적문제，가강굉관조공력도，공제투자규모，다원화투자주체，우화방지산투자자본결구，종이사신강방지산산업여국민경제협조、건강발전。
For the current real estate investment in Xinjiang REI development status and existing problems, co-integration analysis, error correction model and Granger causality test are used in the quantitative study of the 1991-2010 real estate investment in Xinjiang REI. The results showed that:there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between the real estate investment REI and economic growth in Xinjiang;there is a two-way causal relationship between real estate investment REI in Xinjiang and Xinjiang's GDP;Xinjiang real estate investment REI changes in short-term impact on economic growth. Therefore, care must be taken to deal with the problems that exist in the size and structure of the real estate investment in Xinjiang to strengthen macro-control efforts, to control the scale of investment, the investment activity, optimizing the capital structure of real estate investment, so that the real estate industry in Xinjiang can be developed in a healthy way.