中国综合临床
中國綜閤臨床
중국종합림상
CLINICAL MEDICINE OF CHINA
2014年
5期
537-540
,共4页
查尔森合并症指数%急性生理与慢性健康状况Ⅱ评分%ROC曲线%Logistic回归%直肠癌
查爾森閤併癥指數%急性生理與慢性健康狀況Ⅱ評分%ROC麯線%Logistic迴歸%直腸癌
사이삼합병증지수%급성생리여만성건강상황Ⅱ평분%ROC곡선%Logistic회귀%직장암
Charlson weighted index of comorbidities scoring system%Acute physiology and chronic health Ⅱ score%Receiver operating characteristics curve%Logistic regression%Rectum cancer
目的 应用查尔森合并症指数(WIC)评价基础疾病对老年直肠癌患者1年死亡风险的影响.方法 回顾性分析首都医科大学附属北京朝阳医院普外科201 1年6月至2012年5月收治的年龄＞60岁直肠癌患者160例临床资料,包括患者性别、年龄、直肠癌诊断、基础疾病、手术方式(腔镜或者开放)以及入院24h内WIC评分和急性生理与慢性健康状况(APACHE)Ⅱ评分,并且根据复诊情况以及电话联系等方式获得患者1年生存状态.用Logistic回归方法分析影响患者预后的因素,并且绘制受试者工作曲线(ROC)评价WIC评分对预后的判断.结果 160例直肠癌患者1年生存状态统计,存活123例,死亡37例.死亡组患者的WIC评分(2.2±1.3)分和APACHEⅡ评分(11.5±-5.1)分较存活组WIC评分(1.3±1.2)分和APACHEⅡ评分(9.5±4.3)分均高(P值分别为0.021、0.014).多因素Logistic回归方法分析提示年龄、手术方式、WIC评分和APACHEⅡ评分均与直肠癌患者1年生存状态有关,OR值(95％CI)分别为1.053(1.018～1.178)、1.021 (1.011～1.906)、1.786(1.203～2.235)、1.019(1.004～1.628).WIC评分和APACHEⅡ评分以及二者联合预测死亡的ROC曲线下面积依次为0.731、0.828、0.959.结论 WIC评分系统可以较好地评价基础疾病对老年直肠癌患者1年生存率预后的影响.
目的 應用查爾森閤併癥指數(WIC)評價基礎疾病對老年直腸癌患者1年死亡風險的影響.方法 迴顧性分析首都醫科大學附屬北京朝暘醫院普外科201 1年6月至2012年5月收治的年齡＞60歲直腸癌患者160例臨床資料,包括患者性彆、年齡、直腸癌診斷、基礎疾病、手術方式(腔鏡或者開放)以及入院24h內WIC評分和急性生理與慢性健康狀況(APACHE)Ⅱ評分,併且根據複診情況以及電話聯繫等方式穫得患者1年生存狀態.用Logistic迴歸方法分析影響患者預後的因素,併且繪製受試者工作麯線(ROC)評價WIC評分對預後的判斷.結果 160例直腸癌患者1年生存狀態統計,存活123例,死亡37例.死亡組患者的WIC評分(2.2±1.3)分和APACHEⅡ評分(11.5±-5.1)分較存活組WIC評分(1.3±1.2)分和APACHEⅡ評分(9.5±4.3)分均高(P值分彆為0.021、0.014).多因素Logistic迴歸方法分析提示年齡、手術方式、WIC評分和APACHEⅡ評分均與直腸癌患者1年生存狀態有關,OR值(95％CI)分彆為1.053(1.018～1.178)、1.021 (1.011～1.906)、1.786(1.203～2.235)、1.019(1.004～1.628).WIC評分和APACHEⅡ評分以及二者聯閤預測死亡的ROC麯線下麵積依次為0.731、0.828、0.959.結論 WIC評分繫統可以較好地評價基礎疾病對老年直腸癌患者1年生存率預後的影響.
목적 응용사이삼합병증지수(WIC)평개기출질병대노년직장암환자1년사망풍험적영향.방법 회고성분석수도의과대학부속북경조양의원보외과201 1년6월지2012년5월수치적년령＞60세직장암환자160례림상자료,포괄환자성별、년령、직장암진단、기출질병、수술방식(강경혹자개방)이급입원24h내WIC평분화급성생리여만성건강상황(APACHE)Ⅱ평분,병차근거복진정황이급전화련계등방식획득환자1년생존상태.용Logistic회귀방법분석영향환자예후적인소,병차회제수시자공작곡선(ROC)평개WIC평분대예후적판단.결과 160례직장암환자1년생존상태통계,존활123례,사망37례.사망조환자적WIC평분(2.2±1.3)분화APACHEⅡ평분(11.5±-5.1)분교존활조WIC평분(1.3±1.2)분화APACHEⅡ평분(9.5±4.3)분균고(P치분별위0.021、0.014).다인소Logistic회귀방법분석제시년령、수술방식、WIC평분화APACHEⅡ평분균여직장암환자1년생존상태유관,OR치(95％CI)분별위1.053(1.018～1.178)、1.021 (1.011～1.906)、1.786(1.203～2.235)、1.019(1.004～1.628).WIC평분화APACHEⅡ평분이급이자연합예측사망적ROC곡선하면적의차위0.731、0.828、0.959.결론 WIC평분계통가이교호지평개기출질병대노년직장암환자1년생존솔예후적영향.
Objective To investigate the effect of common diseases by the Charlson weighted index of comorbidities(WIC) in predicting 1-year survival rate of older patients with rectum cancer.Methods Retrospective analyzed 160 patients with rectum cancer who were admitted in general surgery of Beijing Chaoyang Hospital Affiliated to Capital Medical University from Jun.2011 to May 2012.The patients were divided into two groups according to 1-year survival status:survival group (n =123) and death group (n =37).The data were recorded including age,gender,cancer diagnosis,underlying diseases,operation mode (laparoscopic or open) The WIC and the Acute physiology and chronic health Ⅱ (APACHE Ⅱ) score were calculated.Logistic regression analysis was used to determine the independent predictors for 1-year survival rate.Receiver operating characteristics(ROC) curve was used to evaluate the value of WIC in predicting 1-year survival rate.Results Of the 160 patients,123 cases survived,37 cases died at 1 year after treatment.WIC score and APACHE score in death group were (2.2 ± 1.3) and (11.5 ± 5.1),higher than those of survival group (1.3 ± 1.2,9.5 ± 4.3 ;P =0.021,0.014).Multivariate Logistic regression analysis indicated that age,mode of operation,WIC score and APACHE score were related to the 1-year survival status of patients with rectal cancer(OR(95％ CI):1.053 (1.018-1.178,1.021 (1.011-1.906),1.786 (1.203-2.235),1.019 (1.004-1.628).ROC curve area of forecasting of death of the WIC score,APACHE Ⅱ score and the combination of the two are 0.731,0.828,0.959.Conclusion The WIC scoring system can be a good evaluation method for 1-year survival rate in old patients with rectum cancer.
