CAJ | 학술논문

气候突变前兆信号对研究气候突变爆发方式、特征、细节过程以及未来气候预测有着极为重要的学术价值及社会意义．青天洞具有年纹层特征的石笋δ18 O记录显示，在新仙女木（Younger Dryas， YD）事件结束期间，季风约在11年内完成转型，但在结束前（11.64 ka BP～11.54 ka BP），季风变化存在2个数十年尺度次级波动，历时约97±7年．该期季风强度颤动与此前YD内部季风变化相比呈现低幅、高频特征，在整个过程中季风强度总体保持上升，且在11.59 ka BP后显示出自相关增强．这些特征与最近洱海湖泊生态系统突变前频繁波动特征类似，说明高频、低幅波动可能反映不同动力系统接近其临界值，可作为突变的前兆信号．
기후돌변전조신호대연구기후돌변폭발방식、특정、세절과정이급미래기후예측유착겁위중요적학술개치급사회의의．청천동구유년문층특정적석순δ18 O기록현시，재신선녀목（Younger Dryas， YD）사건결속기간，계풍약재11년내완성전형，단재결속전（11.64 ka BP～11.54 ka BP），계풍변화존재2개수십년척도차급파동，력시약97±7년．해기계풍강도전동여차전YD내부계풍변화상비정현저폭、고빈특정，재정개과정중계풍강도총체보지상승，차재11.59 ka BP후현시출자상관증강．저사특정여최근이해호박생태계통돌변전빈번파동특정유사，설명고빈、저폭파동가능반영불동동력계통접근기림계치，가작위돌변적전조신호．
Climate warning signal is of scientific and societal importance to understand the mode , characteristics and details of abrupt climate changes and to predict climate evolution in the future .An annually counted stalagmite δ18 O from Qingtian Cave shows that two decadal minor Asian monsoon os-cillations are evident before the end of Younger Dryas (YD) event, lasting 97 ±years (11.64 ka BP~11.54 ka BP ) .These Asian monsoon flickerings , analogous to those high-frequency changes in the Erhai Lake ecosystem before critical transition , exhibit an increasing autocorrelation from 11.59 ka BP, which indicate that the dynamical system might reach its threshold , and the high-frequency , low-amplitude oscillations can be applied as warning signals for approaching such threshold .