CAJ | 학술논문

本文对1990-2012年的新疆生产总值及三产总值数据做了统计分析，建立了新疆地区生产总值与三产生产总值关于年份的指数回归方程，通过对方程进行显著性统计分析，得知第一产业和第三产业发展均衡，但二者均在新疆经济平均发展水平之下，第二产业发展迅速，高于平均水平，占地区生产总值比重较大.若新疆经济的发展模式不变，根据回归方程预计五年后，即2017年新疆地区生产总值达到1.6万亿，一产总值达到0.24万亿，二产总值0.88万亿，三产总值0.54万亿，二产总值达到地区生产总值的一半以上，三者发展极不均衡，出现较大差异.当地政府应该采取相应的措施保持新疆经济的基本平衡.
본문대1990-2012년적신강생산총치급삼산총치수거주료통계분석，건립료신강지구생산총치여삼산생산총치관우년빈적지수회귀방정，통과대방정진행현저성통계분석，득지제일산업화제삼산업발전균형，단이자균재신강경제평균발전수평지하，제이산업발전신속，고우평균수평，점지구생산총치비중교대.약신강경제적발전모식불변，근거회귀방정예계오년후，즉2017년신강지구생산총치체도1.6만억，일산총치체도0.24만억，이산총치0.88만억，삼산총치0.54만억，이산총치체도지구생산총치적일반이상，삼자발전겁불균형，출현교대차이.당지정부응해채취상응적조시보지신강경제적기본평형.
In this paper, we make a statistical analysis on the GDP data of Xinjiang Province of China during 1990-2012, and then the index equations for the economy of Xinjiang are established. By a significant statistical analysis, we obtain that the development speed of the primary industry and tertiary industry keeps equilibrium, but both are below the average development level of economy in Xinjiang, the second industry development is rapid, above average GDP proportion. If Xinjiang economic development model is constant, according to the regression equation, in 2007, after five years, Xinjiang regional GDP will reach nearly 1.6 trillion, the production value of the first industries will be 0.24 trillion, secundiparity gross comes up to 0.88 trillion, the tertiary industry will be 0.54 trillion, secundiparity gross reached more than half of GDP, the development levels of the three industries in Xinjiang will be unequal. The local government should take some corresponding policies to balance the economic development of Xinjiang.