CAJ | 학술논문

石油探明储量是一个动态变化的过程，文章对1980年以来不同区域尺度，包括全球、各大区以及国家层面的石油探明储量变化、分布特征等进行分析，得出结论：（1）世界石油探明储量自1980年以来大致经历了4个阶段，呈现明显的阶梯状增长的态势，基本每十年出现一次储量跃升，并保持一段时间的平稳。储采比一直稳定在40年以上，呈现缓慢上升的趋势。（2）大区尺度的石油探明储量分布不均衡，且探明储量的变化趋势不同。中东一直是石油探明储量最大的地区，其次为中南美洲地区。中东、北美占世界比重先升后降。非洲和中南美洲稳步提升，亚太地区持续下滑。（3）国家层面的石油探明储量呈现明显的集中分布。储量前4的国家占世界储量的53.75%，储量超过10亿吨的国家在很大程度上主导着世界石油开发的基本格局。从各国演变来看，世界石油储量呈现出多极化的趋势，从中东、北美向中亚、俄罗斯和中南美洲等转移。
석유탐명저량시일개동태변화적과정，문장대1980년이래불동구역척도，포괄전구、각대구이급국가층면적석유탐명저량변화、분포특정등진행분석，득출결론：（1）세계석유탐명저량자1980년이래대치경력료4개계단，정현명현적계제상증장적태세，기본매십년출현일차저량약승，병보지일단시간적평은。저채비일직은정재40년이상，정현완만상승적추세。（2）대구척도적석유탐명저량분포불균형，차탐명저량적변화추세불동。중동일직시석유탐명저량최대적지구，기차위중남미주지구。중동、북미점세계비중선승후강。비주화중남미주은보제승，아태지구지속하활。（3）국가층면적석유탐명저량정현명현적집중분포。저량전4적국가점세계저량적53.75%，저량초과10억둔적국가재흔대정도상주도착세계석유개발적기본격국。종각국연변래간，세계석유저량정현출다겁화적추세，종중동、북미향중아、아라사화중남미주등전이。
Proven oil reserve is a dynamic process. This paper analyzes the change and distribution of the proven oil reserves on different regional scales which including the global, the regional, and national levels based on the data from 1980 to 2011. Conclusions are as follows: (1) the change of world proven oil reserves has roughly gone through four stages with obvious trend of stepped characteristic. Generally speaking, inter annual changes in most years were stable, and the R/P ratio showed a slowly rising trend. (2) From the regional scale, the proven oil reserves showed an unbalanced distri-bution and the changing trends showed a different track. The proportion of Middle East and the North America raised at first, and then decreased, while the Africa and the Middle & South America raised steadily. (3) From the na-tional level, proven oil reserves showed an obvious clustered distribution and the nations which proven reserves more than 0.5 billion tons controlled the pattern of world oil reserves. Members of “billion tons club”have increased and the reserves have changed significantly from 1980 to 2011.