CAJ | 학술논문

为加强QHD32-6油田电泵井管理和有效预测电泵机组发生故障的概率，应用模糊综合评判方法，建立了引发电泵机组故障的因素集、权重集和判断集，给出了影响因素风险系数计算方法和单井风险评价等级标准，建立了电泵井机组故障预测模型。该方法能够预测运转电泵机组故障概率高的井。实际应用表明，2013年上半年应用该方法预测机组故障概率，其准确率达77.78%，累计挽回产量损失7075 m3。该方法预测准确率能满足工程技术分析需要，为电泵井优化管理提供了技术支持。
위가강QHD32-6유전전빙정관리화유효예측전빙궤조발생고장적개솔，응용모호종합평판방법，건립료인발전빙궤조고장적인소집、권중집화판단집，급출료영향인소풍험계수계산방법화단정풍험평개등급표준，건립료전빙정궤조고장예측모형。해방법능구예측운전전빙궤조고장개솔고적정。실제응용표명，2013년상반년응용해방법예측궤조고장개솔，기준학솔체77.78%，루계만회산량손실7075 m3。해방법예측준학솔능만족공정기술분석수요，위전빙정우화관리제공료기술지지。
To enhance the management of QHD32-6 oilifeld electric pump wells and predict effectively the probability of faults of electric pump units, fuzzy comprehensive judgment method is applied to establish the element set, weight set and judgment set of faults of electric pump units, to provide the calculation method of risk coefifcient of inlfuencing factor and criterion of risk evaluation level of single well and to establish the fault prediction model of electric pump units. This method can predict the wells with high fault prob-ability of operating electric pump unit. The actual application shows that the accuracy of application of this method in fault probability prediction of units was 77.78 % in the ifrst half of 2013 and accumulative production loss saved is 7,075 m3. The predict accuracy of this method can meet the demand for engineering and technical analysis to provide technical support for optimized management of electric pump.