CAJ | 학술논문

电力与经济紧密相关,电力是经济发展的物质基础,经济的发展会带动电力的发展,电力的供应不足会制约经济的发展。文中采用协整分析、Granger 因果分析及误差修正模型研究了云南省电力消费与经济增长之间的关系,研究结果表明云南省电力消费是实际GDP的单向Granger原因,GDP与电力消费之间存在着长期协整关系,其长期弹性为0.9459,短期弹性为0.1296。从脉冲响应函数和方差分解分析的结果可知,云南省电力消费对经济增长有较大的影响,经济增长对电力消费有较强的依赖性。
전력여경제긴밀상관,전력시경제발전적물질기출,경제적발전회대동전력적발전,전력적공응불족회제약경제적발전。문중채용협정분석、Granger 인과분석급오차수정모형연구료운남성전력소비여경제증장지간적관계,연구결과표명운남성전력소비시실제GDP적단향Granger원인,GDP여전력소비지간존재착장기협정관계,기장기탄성위0.9459,단기탄성위0.1296。종맥충향응함수화방차분해분석적결과가지,운남성전력소비대경제증장유교대적영향,경제증장대전력소비유교강적의뢰성。
Power is closely related to economy,electricity is the material basis of economic development,economic development will pro-mote the development of electric power,the power supply will restrict the development of economy. It adopts the cointegration analysis, Granger cause-effect analysis and error correction model to research the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in Yunnan province. The research results show that the electricity consumption in Yunnan province is a one-way Granger cause of real GDP,there are long-term cointegration relationship between GDP and electricity consumption. Its long-term elasticity is 0. 945 9, and the short-term elasticity is 0. 129 6. From the results of impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis,can draw a conclusion that the electricity consumption has great influence on economic growth in Yunnan province and economic growth has strong dependence on electricity consumption.