CAJ | 학술논문

以中国北方典型的半干旱区老哈河流域为研究区,基于分布在流域内的53个雨量站、10个径流站和4个气象站数据研究老哈河10个子流域近50年来关键水文要素的时空变化规律。利用MK检验及Pettitt突变点检验,分析降水与径流的变化趋势和显著性水平,并计算其突变点。采用半分布式可变下渗能力( variable infiltration capacity,VIC)模型对10个子流域基准期的降雨径流过程进行模拟。基于率定后的模型参数,对变化期自然径流进行重建,从而定量分割出气候变化和人类活动对该流域径流急剧下降的影响。结果表明：自1980年以来,老哈河流域90%的径流下降是由人类活动引起的,而仅有10%归因于气候变化；就人类活动而言,特别是中下游地区大面积的农业灌溉用水是整个老哈河流域地表径流急剧下降的根本原因。此外,研究还发现人类活动对径流下降的贡献率随流域干湿变化而不同,在枯水年人类活动影响所占比重较大,而在丰水年人类活动的影响相对较小。
이중국북방전형적반간한구로합하류역위연구구,기우분포재류역내적53개우량참、10개경류참화4개기상참수거연구로합하10개자류역근50년래관건수문요소적시공변화규률。이용MK검험급Pettitt돌변점검험,분석강수여경류적변화추세화현저성수평,병계산기돌변점。채용반분포식가변하삼능력( variable infiltration capacity,VIC)모형대10개자류역기준기적강우경류과정진행모의。기우솔정후적모형삼수,대변화기자연경류진행중건,종이정량분할출기후변화화인류활동대해류역경류급극하강적영향。결과표명：자1980년이래,로합하류역90%적경류하강시유인류활동인기적,이부유10%귀인우기후변화；취인류활동이언,특별시중하유지구대면적적농업관개용수시정개로합하류역지표경류급극하강적근본원인。차외,연구환발현인류활동대경류하강적공헌솔수류역간습변화이불동,재고수년인류활동영향소점비중교대,이재봉수년인류활동적영향상대교소。
Based on data from 53 rain gauge stations, ten runoff stations, and four meteorological stations in the Laohahe Basin, a typical semi-arid area in northern China, we studied the temporal and spatial variations of key hydrological factors in ten sub-basins of the Laohahe Basin over the past 50 years. We employed the rank-based Mann-Kendall trend test and Pettitt change-point test to analyze the change trends and significance levels of precipitation and runoff in the basin and calculate the change point. Then, we adopted a semi-distributed variable infiltration capacity ( VIC) model to simulate the rainfall-runoff processes of the ten sub-basins during the baseline period. Based on calibrated parameters of the model, we reconstructed natural runoff during the variation period, so as to quantitatively separate the effects of climate change and human activities on the abrupt reduction of the runoff in the basin. The results show that since 1980, 90% of the runoff reduction in the basin has been caused by human activities, and 10% of the runoff reduction has been caused by climate change. In terms of human activities, widespread agricultural irrigation especially in the middle and lower reaches, was the essential reason for the abrupt reduction of runoff in the Laohahe Basin. Furthermore, the impact of human activities on runoff reduction varied with dryness and wetness changes across the basin, with greater impact in dry years than in wet years.