洛阳师范学院学报
洛暘師範學院學報
락양사범학원학보
JOURNAL OF LUOYANG TEACHERS' COLLEGE
2014年
3期
83-87
,共5页
李进涛%李白云%黄芮%郑飞
李進濤%李白雲%黃芮%鄭飛
리진도%리백운%황예%정비
房价波动%时间序列模型%宏观调控效应
房價波動%時間序列模型%宏觀調控效應
방개파동%시간서렬모형%굉관조공효응
price fluctuations%time series model%macro-control effects
通过构建时间序列模型,对我国商品房价格波动进行周期性分析,同时细分我国自1998年以来出台的房地产宏观调控政策并划分周期,将二者对比来研究宏观调控政策的调控效应。研究发现从1998年至今,我国房价变动周期房价与宏观调控周期数均为4,且宏观调控效应滞后期为一年,提前于房价变动一年发生。同时,我国近年来房价波动范围相比于1998年至2004年间房价波动范围明显缩小,说明我国宏观调控政策在一定程度上的确起到了平稳房价、抑制其飞速上涨势头的作用。
通過構建時間序列模型,對我國商品房價格波動進行週期性分析,同時細分我國自1998年以來齣檯的房地產宏觀調控政策併劃分週期,將二者對比來研究宏觀調控政策的調控效應。研究髮現從1998年至今,我國房價變動週期房價與宏觀調控週期數均為4,且宏觀調控效應滯後期為一年,提前于房價變動一年髮生。同時,我國近年來房價波動範圍相比于1998年至2004年間房價波動範圍明顯縮小,說明我國宏觀調控政策在一定程度上的確起到瞭平穩房價、抑製其飛速上漲勢頭的作用。
통과구건시간서렬모형,대아국상품방개격파동진행주기성분석,동시세분아국자1998년이래출태적방지산굉관조공정책병화분주기,장이자대비래연구굉관조공정책적조공효응。연구발현종1998년지금,아국방개변동주기방개여굉관조공주기수균위4,차굉관조공효응체후기위일년,제전우방개변동일년발생。동시,아국근년래방개파동범위상비우1998년지2004년간방개파동범위명현축소,설명아국굉관조공정책재일정정도상적학기도료평은방개、억제기비속상창세두적작용。
By constructing a time series model , and the periodic analysis of the fluctuation of the house price and subdividing the macro-control policies since 1998 , we made a comparative study of the effect of the macro-con-trol policies .Study found that since 1998 , China ’ s housing prices changes and the macro-control cycle rates was 4 , and the lagged effects of the macro-control was one year , occurred one year ahead of changes in prices .Mean-while, the range of price fluctuations in recent years , compared to that between 1998-2004, was significantly re-duced , which indicated that China ’ s macro-control policies to some extent , indeed stabilized the prices , inhibited its rapid rise .