贵州农业科学
貴州農業科學
귀주농업과학
GUIZHOU AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES
2014年
3期
233-236,241
,共5页
生态农业%农业现代化%VAR 模型%动态关联效应%新疆
生態農業%農業現代化%VAR 模型%動態關聯效應%新疆
생태농업%농업현대화%VAR 모형%동태관련효응%신강
ecological agriculture%agriculture modernization%VAR model%dynamic correlation effect%Xinjiang
为了探究新疆生态农业和农业现代化的动态关系，采用新疆1990-2010年的时间序列数据，通过主成分分析方法对生态农业发展水平和农业现代化发展水平进行测度，并利用 VAR 模型来分析生态农业和农业现代化的动态效应。结果表明：生态农业的发展和农业现代化有很强的关联动态效应，农业现代化对生态农业的发展具有明显的促进作用。从短期来看，过度追求生态农业发展会妨碍农业现代化进程；从长期来看，农业现代化对生态农业发展的拉动作用大，而且两者均具有正向的拉动效应。
為瞭探究新疆生態農業和農業現代化的動態關繫，採用新疆1990-2010年的時間序列數據，通過主成分分析方法對生態農業髮展水平和農業現代化髮展水平進行測度，併利用 VAR 模型來分析生態農業和農業現代化的動態效應。結果錶明：生態農業的髮展和農業現代化有很彊的關聯動態效應，農業現代化對生態農業的髮展具有明顯的促進作用。從短期來看，過度追求生態農業髮展會妨礙農業現代化進程；從長期來看，農業現代化對生態農業髮展的拉動作用大，而且兩者均具有正嚮的拉動效應。
위료탐구신강생태농업화농업현대화적동태관계，채용신강1990-2010년적시간서렬수거，통과주성분분석방법대생태농업발전수평화농업현대화발전수평진행측도，병이용 VAR 모형래분석생태농업화농업현대화적동태효응。결과표명：생태농업적발전화농업현대화유흔강적관련동태효응，농업현대화대생태농업적발전구유명현적촉진작용。종단기래간，과도추구생태농업발전회방애농업현대화진정；종장기래간，농업현대화대생태농업발전적랍동작용대，이차량자균구유정향적랍동효응。
With time series data during 1990-2010 and principal component analysis method,the ecological agriculture and agricultural modernization development in Xinjiang were measured,and then the VAR model was released to explore the dynamic effects of ecological agriculture and agricultural modernization.The results showed that the ecological agriculture and agricultural modernization had strong correlation dynamic effects.Agricultural modernization had obvious promoting effects on the development of ecological agriculture,excessive pursuit of ecological agriculture might interfere with development of agricultural modernization in short term,agricultural modernization had greater pulling effect on ecological agriculture development in the long run,and both of them had positive stimulating effect.
