CAJ | 학술논문

目的：卫生事业发展“十二五”规划中对卫生总费用主要指标提出了明确的发展目标，近年来卫生总费用变化趋势提示这些目标的实现面临挑战，有必要开展预测研究。方法：以全国卫生总费用时间序列数据为基础，基于国际卫生筹资战略指标和国外政府卫生投入有关情况，结合“十二五”医改目标，进行预测分析。结果：到2015年，我国卫生总费用占GDP比重将达到5.7%，个人卫生支出占卫生总费用比重下降到30.0%。财政卫生支出年均增速应不低于22.0%。结论：积极构建政府卫生投入长效增长机制，拓宽社会筹资渠道，实现公共筹资的稳步增长，进一步优化卫生筹资结构。
목적：위생사업발전“십이오”규화중대위생총비용주요지표제출료명학적발전목표，근년래위생총비용변화추세제시저사목표적실현면림도전，유필요개전예측연구。방법：이전국위생총비용시간서렬수거위기출，기우국제위생주자전략지표화국외정부위생투입유관정황，결합“십이오”의개목표，진행예측분석。결과：도2015년，아국위생총비용점GDP비중장체도5.7%，개인위생지출점위생총비용비중하강도30.0%。재정위생지출년균증속응불저우22.0%。결론：적겁구건정부위생투입장효증장궤제，탁관사회주자거도，실현공공주자적은보증장，진일보우화위생주자결구。
Objective: Specific goals of total health expenditure related indicators were proposed in 12th Five Year Plan of Health Service Development. It is necessary to conduct projection analysis for there is a challenge to achieve the goals according to the trends of the changes of total health expenditure related indicators in recent years. Methods: Using the national time serials data of total health expenditure, combining the goals of 12th Five Year Plan of Health System Reform to project China total health expenditure in 2015 based on the international strategy of health financing and the status of government health expenditure in other countries. Results:Out of pocket as share of total health expenditure will be declined to 30.0% in 2015, total health expenditure as share of GDP will be 5.7% in 2015, and the annual growth rate of government health expenditure should not be less than 22.0%. Conclusion: Long term growth mechanism of government health input should be established and social financing source should be broadened to improve public financing gradually and further optimize the financing structure.