CAJ | 학술논문

房地产价格过快增长无疑成为了近年来社会普遍关注的热点问题之一。造成我国房地产价格持续走高的原因也是众说纷纭。文章通过比较常见的几项影响国内物价水平的经济因素，通过实证的形式确定了人民币汇率和通货膨胀水平对房地产价格具有显著影响。同时运用模型预测并且结合2014年来人民币不断贬值的现状，经过分析后确定未来房地产价格将会在平稳中下降的结论。最后，文章提出了通过完善汇率政策并控制外汇数量；拓宽房地产市场融资渠道；控制通货膨胀水平等政策性意见来有效控制房地产价格，稳定持续推动国内经济发展。
방지산개격과쾌증장무의성위료근년래사회보편관주적열점문제지일。조성아국방지산개격지속주고적원인야시음설분운。문장통과비교상견적궤항영향국내물개수평적경제인소，통과실증적형식학정료인민폐회솔화통화팽창수평대방지산개격구유현저영향。동시운용모형예측병차결합2014년래인민폐불단폄치적현상，경과분석후학정미래방지산개격장회재평은중하강적결론。최후，문장제출료통과완선회솔정책병공제외회수량；탁관방지산시장융자거도；공제통화팽창수평등정책성의견래유효공제방지산개격，은정지속추동국내경제발전。
The rapid growth of real estate price becomes one of the hottest issues of social concern in recent years. And there are many reasons caused the continuous rise of estate price. By comparing with several common economic factors affecting the domestic price level, this paper shows that the RMB exchange rate and inflation have a significant impact on real estate price. After an analysis which compared with the situation of the economy in 2014, we conclude that the estate price will decrease smoothly. Finally, the paper puts forward several policy suggestions, such as improving the exchange rate policy and controlling the amount of foreign exchanges, broaden-ing the financing channels of real estate market, controlling inflation and etc. to control estate price and to sustain-ably improve the economy development in China.