中国环境科学
中國環境科學
중국배경과학
CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE
2014年
3期
810-816
,共7页
于慧%孙宝盛%李亚楠%张燕%齐庚申
于慧%孫寶盛%李亞楠%張燕%齊庚申
우혜%손보성%리아남%장연%제경신
GM(1,1)模型%模糊分类%马尔科夫模型
GM(1,1)模型%模糊分類%馬爾科伕模型
GM(1,1)모형%모호분류%마이과부모형
GM(1,1) model%fuzzy classification%Markov Mode
灰色 GM(1,1)模型在水质预测中得到了较为广泛的运用,但其存在灰色偏差与抗干扰能力弱的局限性,针对这一问题,将马尔科夫链理论与模糊集合理论引入灰色GM(1,1)预测模型,并应用该模型对海河三岔口断面的DO、CODMn和NH3-N 3项指标2012~2016年的浓度变化趋势进行预测.结果表明,2004~2016年,DO及NH3-N浓度大致呈上升趋势,预计2016年分别可达9.15,1.47mg/L;CODMn浓度呈下降趋势,预计2016年可达3.91mg/L.以2012年的数据做验证,灰色模糊马尔科夫链模型的预测精度最高,可作为科学的水质预测方法.
灰色 GM(1,1)模型在水質預測中得到瞭較為廣汎的運用,但其存在灰色偏差與抗榦擾能力弱的跼限性,針對這一問題,將馬爾科伕鏈理論與模糊集閤理論引入灰色GM(1,1)預測模型,併應用該模型對海河三岔口斷麵的DO、CODMn和NH3-N 3項指標2012~2016年的濃度變化趨勢進行預測.結果錶明,2004~2016年,DO及NH3-N濃度大緻呈上升趨勢,預計2016年分彆可達9.15,1.47mg/L;CODMn濃度呈下降趨勢,預計2016年可達3.91mg/L.以2012年的數據做驗證,灰色模糊馬爾科伕鏈模型的預測精度最高,可作為科學的水質預測方法.
회색 GM(1,1)모형재수질예측중득도료교위엄범적운용,단기존재회색편차여항간우능력약적국한성,침대저일문제,장마이과부련이론여모호집합이론인입회색GM(1,1)예측모형,병응용해모형대해하삼차구단면적DO、CODMn화NH3-N 3항지표2012~2016년적농도변화추세진행예측.결과표명,2004~2016년,DO급NH3-N농도대치정상승추세,예계2016년분별가체9.15,1.47mg/L;CODMn농도정하강추세,예계2016년가체3.91mg/L.이2012년적수거주험증,회색모호마이과부련모형적예측정도최고,가작위과학적수질예측방법.
The GM(1,1) model has been widely used in the prediction of water quality. But it had the disadvantages of grey bias and weak anti-jamming capability. To solve this problem, the markov chain theory and fuzzy classification were introduced into the grey forecasting model and a new method named the Grey-Fuzzy-Markov Chain Model was proposed. In this paper, the tendency changes of DO,CODMn and NH3-N’s concentration were predicted in Haihe River from 2012 to 2016. The results showed that from 2004 to 2016 the concentration of DO and NH3-N would increase to 9.15 and 1.47mg/L respectively in 2016. Meanwhile the CODMn would decrease to 3.91mg/L in 2016. The concentration of DO,CODMn and NH3-N in 2012 were forecasted to check the precision of this model. The precision of the Grey-Fuzzy-Markov model was better than the GM(1,1) model and it would be a scientific method for the prediction of water quality.