中国房地产（学术版）
中國房地產（學術版）
중국방지산（학술판）
China Real Estate
2014年
2期
14-20
,共7页
房地产市场%经济增长%三部门模型%格兰杰因果关系检验
房地產市場%經濟增長%三部門模型%格蘭傑因果關繫檢驗
방지산시장%경제증장%삼부문모형%격란걸인과관계검험
Real estate market%Economic growth%Three sector model%Granger Causality Test
租金、售价等价格指标及其周期性波动，常用于衡量房地产市场的发展程度。在运用三部门模型分析区域经济增长如何影响区域房地产市场发展的基础上，提出上海经济增长推高房地产整体市场和住宅子市场的租金、售价的假设。选取5项指标，利用上海1998-2012年的城市统计年鉴数据，通过格兰杰因果检验方法进行实证检验。结果表明，上海整体房地产市场和住宅子市场的租金增长，均以经济增长为格兰杰因；两个市场的售价与经济增长无法体现因果关系。因此，租金是比价格更有效、更稳定的市场指标。
租金、售價等價格指標及其週期性波動，常用于衡量房地產市場的髮展程度。在運用三部門模型分析區域經濟增長如何影響區域房地產市場髮展的基礎上，提齣上海經濟增長推高房地產整體市場和住宅子市場的租金、售價的假設。選取5項指標，利用上海1998-2012年的城市統計年鑒數據，通過格蘭傑因果檢驗方法進行實證檢驗。結果錶明，上海整體房地產市場和住宅子市場的租金增長，均以經濟增長為格蘭傑因；兩箇市場的售價與經濟增長無法體現因果關繫。因此，租金是比價格更有效、更穩定的市場指標。
조금、수개등개격지표급기주기성파동，상용우형량방지산시장적발전정도。재운용삼부문모형분석구역경제증장여하영향구역방지산시장발전적기출상，제출상해경제증장추고방지산정체시장화주택자시장적조금、수개적가설。선취5항지표，이용상해1998-2012년적성시통계년감수거，통과격란걸인과검험방법진행실증검험。결과표명，상해정체방지산시장화주택자시장적조금증장，균이경제증장위격란걸인；량개시장적수개여경제증장무법체현인과관계。인차，조금시비개격경유효、경은정적시장지표。
Price indexes,such as rent and sale price,together with their movement indicate the status and stability of a regional real estate market.After reviewing how regional economic growth would promote the region’s real estate market to develop using a three-sector model,hypothesis are raised,on the growth of Shanghai’s economy pushing up rent and price of the whole real estate market,as well as of the residential submarket.Using data collected from Shanghai City Yearbook from 1998 to 2012,Granger causality tests are performed. The results showed that,economic growth is the Granger reason for the growth of rent in both the whole market and the residential submarket, whereas no causality relationship showed between economic growth and the sale price in neither of the two markets.Therefore, rent rather than price is a more valid and stable indicator of a real estate market.
