物流工程与管理
物流工程與管理
물류공정여관리
LOGISTICS ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT
2014年
2期
54-55
,共2页
航空货运%灰色GM(1.1)%灰色马尔科夫链模型
航空貨運%灰色GM(1.1)%灰色馬爾科伕鏈模型
항공화운%회색GM(1.1)%회색마이과부련모형
airfreight%GM(1,1) model%grey-Markov model
航空运输量的预测是航空运输规划的基础,文中以福建省航空货运发送量为预测对象,结合灰色系统理论与马尔科夫链理论,提出了灰色马尔科夫链预测模型,预测结果表明,模型精度比 GM(1.1)预测结果更好,能够反映福建省航空运输的发展趋势。
航空運輸量的預測是航空運輸規劃的基礎,文中以福建省航空貨運髮送量為預測對象,結閤灰色繫統理論與馬爾科伕鏈理論,提齣瞭灰色馬爾科伕鏈預測模型,預測結果錶明,模型精度比 GM(1.1)預測結果更好,能夠反映福建省航空運輸的髮展趨勢。
항공운수량적예측시항공운수규화적기출,문중이복건성항공화운발송량위예측대상,결합회색계통이론여마이과부련이론,제출료회색마이과부련예측모형,예측결과표명,모형정도비 GM(1.1)예측결과경호,능구반영복건성항공운수적발전추세。
Airfreight volume forecast is the basis for the planning of air transport .With the Grey System Theory and the theory of Markov Chain, this paper comes up with the predictive model of the Grey-Markov Chain to forecasting the airfreight of Fujian. And it showed that, predictive results of the Grey Markov Chain model are more accurate than the GM(1.1) model's, and can better reflect the development trend of the airfreight volume of Fujian.