CAJ | 학술논문

现行推求设计潮位过程线采用的同频率设计方法，未考虑到高潮位与潮差间的相关性及同时发生的概率。择优选用G-H Copula函数建立年最高潮位和年最大潮差的二维联合分布模型，对重现期进行计算与分析。以天津港塘沽站长期潮位资料为研究数据，经分析得到以下结果：在年最高潮位与年最大潮差相关性弱的感潮河段，较大重现期的高潮位和潮差同频率发生的概率很小；实测资料中年最高潮位与相应潮差的同现重现期主要受高潮位重现期的控制，且二者间存在良好的线性相关关系。提出了一种以高潮位为控制要素，结合同现重现期推求设计潮位过程线的方法，可应用于以考虑高潮位为主的防洪潮设计，而对以考虑潮流为主的设计潮位过程线推求则不适用。
현행추구설계조위과정선채용적동빈솔설계방법，미고필도고조위여조차간적상관성급동시발생적개솔。택우선용G-H Copula함수건립년최고조위화년최대조차적이유연합분포모형，대중현기진행계산여분석。이천진항당고참장기조위자료위연구수거，경분석득도이하결과：재년최고조위여년최대조차상관성약적감조하단，교대중현기적고조위화조차동빈솔발생적개솔흔소；실측자료중년최고조위여상응조차적동현중현기주요수고조위중현기적공제，차이자간존재량호적선성상관관계。제출료일충이고조위위공제요소，결합동현중현기추구설계조위과정선적방법，가응용우이고필고조위위주적방홍조설계，이대이고필조류위주적설계조위과정선추구칙불괄용。
The current method in the derivation of design tide curve takes the high tidal level and tidal range being enlarged by the same design frequency, however, it does not consider the correlation between high tidal level and tidal range. By optimizing selection of G-H Copula function, a two-dimensional joint distribution model was built with annual maximum tidal level and annual maximum tidal range, and then corresponding return period was calculated and analyzed. A case study was carried out based on the long-term observations on Tanggu tide station of Tianjin Port. The results show that (a) the probability is very small when high tidal level encountering tidal range with the same large return period, and (b) the concurring return period of annual maximum tidal level and relevant tidal range is mainly controlled by the return period of annual maximum tidal level and a good linear correlation existing between them. Treating the high tidal level as a controlling element and considering the concurring return period, a new method for obtaining design tide curve is proposed. It can be applied to the design of protection against the flood and tide, while the method is inapplicable for deducing design tide curve when taking tidal current as a controlling element.