CAJ | 학술논문

为探讨黄河三角洲地区土地利用演变规律及驱动机制，以东营市为例，采用1989年、1999年和2009年遥感影像解译土地利用类型，结合土地利用变化影响因子分析，构建土地利用变化预测模型（LCM）。以1989-1999年土地利用变化为基础，采用LCM模型模拟2009年土地利用变化，Kappa系数为0．877，验证了LCM模型具有较强的预测能力和可靠性。在此基础上，预测2019年土地利用变化，结果显示耕地、草地、未利用土地将持续减少，建筑用地、水域面积将有所增加。
위탐토황하삼각주지구토지이용연변규률급구동궤제，이동영시위례，채용1989년、1999년화2009년요감영상해역토지이용류형，결합토지이용변화영향인자분석，구건토지이용변화예측모형（LCM）。이1989-1999년토지이용변화위기출，채용LCM모형모의2009년토지이용변화，Kappa계수위0．877，험증료LCM모형구유교강적예측능력화가고성。재차기출상，예측2019년토지이용변화，결과현시경지、초지、미이용토지장지속감소，건축용지、수역면적장유소증가。
In order to explore the evolution law of land use change and driving mechanism in the Yellow River Delta,taking Dongying City for an example and adopting the remote sensing image interpretations in 1989,1999 and 2009 as well as land use change factors analysis,this paper es-tablished a model (land change modeler,LCM)for land use change prediction. Based on the land use change during the period of 1989~1999, the proposed model was applied to simulate the land change use in 2009 and the Kappa coefficient was 0. 877,which indicated the model having high prediction ability and reliability. Based on this,the land use change in 2019 was predicted and the results show that the areas of cultivated land,grassland and unused land will continuously decline,while the areas of construction land and waters will increase slightly.