南水北调与水利科技
南水北調與水利科技
남수북조여수리과기
SOUTH-TO-NORTH WATER
2014年
2期
137-141,145
,共6页
梁钟元%王海潮%雷晓辉
樑鐘元%王海潮%雷曉輝
량종원%왕해조%뢰효휘
气候变化%CM IP3%WEP-L%南水北调中线受水区%径流量影响
氣候變化%CM IP3%WEP-L%南水北調中線受水區%徑流量影響
기후변화%CM IP3%WEP-L%남수북조중선수수구%경류량영향
climate change%CMIP3%WEP-L%intake area in the Middle Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project%runoff impact
资料显示，南水北调中线受水区近50年来气温增高1℃左右。为了分析气候变化对未来南水北调水源区需调水量的影响，本文以南水北调中线受水区为研究对象，采用WCRP的CM IP3数据，运用WEP-L分布式水文模型，计算气候变化情景对南水北调中线受水区径流量的影响。研究成果对于南水北调中线工程通水后水源区需调水量研究具有重要的借鉴意义，为研究气候变化对径流量的影响提供了一种可靠的方法，并为分析气候变化对水循环的影响奠定了重要的基础。
資料顯示，南水北調中線受水區近50年來氣溫增高1℃左右。為瞭分析氣候變化對未來南水北調水源區需調水量的影響，本文以南水北調中線受水區為研究對象，採用WCRP的CM IP3數據，運用WEP-L分佈式水文模型，計算氣候變化情景對南水北調中線受水區徑流量的影響。研究成果對于南水北調中線工程通水後水源區需調水量研究具有重要的藉鑒意義，為研究氣候變化對徑流量的影響提供瞭一種可靠的方法，併為分析氣候變化對水循環的影響奠定瞭重要的基礎。
자료현시，남수북조중선수수구근50년래기온증고1℃좌우。위료분석기후변화대미래남수북조수원구수조수량적영향，본문이남수북조중선수수구위연구대상，채용WCRP적CM IP3수거，운용WEP-L분포식수문모형，계산기후변화정경대남수북조중선수수구경류량적영향。연구성과대우남수북조중선공정통수후수원구수조수량연구구유중요적차감의의，위연구기후변화대경류량적영향제공료일충가고적방법，병위분석기후변화대수순배적영향전정료중요적기출。
Previous results showed that the temperature of the intake area in the Middle Route of South-to-North Water Diver-sion Project increases by about 1℃ in recent 50 years .In order to analyze the impact of climate change on the future water regu-lation quantity in the water source area of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project ,the paper investigated the impact of cli-mate change on the intake area runoff in the Middle Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project using the WEP-L distrib-uted hydrological model based on the CMIP3 data of WCRP .The results are of an important significance for the study of water regulation quantity in the water source area during the operation of Middle-Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project , provide a reliable method for the study of the impact of climate change on runoff ,and lay an important foundation for the analy-sis of the impact of climate change on hydrologic cycle .
