CAJ | 학술논문

集合预报是针对数值预报的不确定性而发展起来的概率预报技术，在水库控制中应用集合预报信息可以延长水文预报有效预见期并且提高预报精度。目前，集合预报已在发达国家中得到广泛的应用。现概括了集合预报的发展过程，并从洪水预警、径流预报、水库调度决策3个方面分析了集合预报在水文领域中的研究进展，探讨了集合预报的检验和集合预报应用中存在的关键问题。
집합예보시침대수치예보적불학정성이발전기래적개솔예보기술，재수고공제중응용집합예보신식가이연장수문예보유효예견기병차제고예보정도。목전，집합예보이재발체국가중득도엄범적응용。현개괄료집합예보적발전과정，병종홍수예경、경류예보、수고조도결책3개방면분석료집합예보재수문영역중적연구진전，탐토료집합예보적검험화집합예보응용중존재적관건문제。
Ensemble forecast is a probabilistic forecast technique developed from the uncertainty of numerical prediction .Using ensemble forecast can improve the forecast time and accuracy of hydrological forecast in reservoir operation .It has been widely used in developed countries .In this paper ,the development progress of ensemble forecast was introduced ,and the research pro-gress on ensemble forecast in hydrological application was analyzed from three aspects ,including the flood warning ,runoff pre-diction ,and reservoir regulation .In addition ,the verification of ensemble forecast and key issues in the hydrological application w ere discussed .