南水北调与水利科技
南水北調與水利科技
남수북조여수리과기
SOUTH-TO-NORTH WATER
2014年
2期
75-78,106
,共5页
高路%Karsten Schulz%陈兴伟%林广发
高路%Karsten Schulz%陳興偉%林廣髮
고로%Karsten Schulz%진흥위%림엄발
气候变化%极端气温%再分析资料%ECMWF%累积分布函数%分位数%中国
氣候變化%極耑氣溫%再分析資料%ECMWF%纍積分佈函數%分位數%中國
기후변화%겁단기온%재분석자료%ECMWF%루적분포함수%분위수%중국
climate change%extreme temperature%reanalysis data%ECMWF%cumulative distribution function%quantile%China
采用中国陆域1989年-2009年3小时0.71°格点的ERA-Interim地表2 m气温预报数据,运用累积分布函数与分位数对研究区的极端低温和极端高温进行分析。结果表明:东北、青藏高原及西北地区为极端低温的集聚区,极端低温逐步沿西北-东南方向递增;青藏高原为全国极端高温中的唯一冷中心,西北盆地为最热中心;ERA-In-terim再分析资料能够较好地反映中国极端低温和极端高温空间分布规律,整体上具有较好的可信度。结合分位数方法定量分析了极端气温的持续时间,为极端气候事件的定量研究提供了方法借鉴。
採用中國陸域1989年-2009年3小時0.71°格點的ERA-Interim地錶2 m氣溫預報數據,運用纍積分佈函數與分位數對研究區的極耑低溫和極耑高溫進行分析。結果錶明:東北、青藏高原及西北地區為極耑低溫的集聚區,極耑低溫逐步沿西北-東南方嚮遞增;青藏高原為全國極耑高溫中的唯一冷中心,西北盆地為最熱中心;ERA-In-terim再分析資料能夠較好地反映中國極耑低溫和極耑高溫空間分佈規律,整體上具有較好的可信度。結閤分位數方法定量分析瞭極耑氣溫的持續時間,為極耑氣候事件的定量研究提供瞭方法藉鑒。
채용중국륙역1989년-2009년3소시0.71°격점적ERA-Interim지표2 m기온예보수거,운용루적분포함수여분위수대연구구적겁단저온화겁단고온진행분석。결과표명:동북、청장고원급서북지구위겁단저온적집취구,겁단저온축보연서북-동남방향체증;청장고원위전국겁단고온중적유일랭중심,서북분지위최열중심;ERA-In-terim재분석자료능구교호지반영중국겁단저온화겁단고온공간분포규률,정체상구유교호적가신도。결합분위수방법정량분석료겁단기온적지속시간,위겁단기후사건적정량연구제공료방법차감。
In this paper ,the 3-hour and 0 .71° grid temperature forecast data of 2m above ground surface during the period of 1989 to 2009 derived from ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset were applied for the analysis of extremely low and high temperatures in China .Based on the cumulative distribution function and quantile function ,the results indicated that the Northeast China ,Ti-betan Plateau ,and Northwest China are the main extremely low-temperature areas ,and the extremely low temperature rises a-long the northwest-southeast direction .Tibetan Plateau is the sole cold area with the extremely high temperatures ,while the ba-sins located in Northwest China are the warmest areas .ERA-Interim reanalysis data can represent the spatial distribution of ex-tremely low/high-temperature areas in China .The duration of extreme temperatures can be quantitatively analyzed using the quantile function ,which provides reference for the quantitative analysis of extreme climate events .