南水北调与水利科技
南水北調與水利科技
남수북조여수리과기
SOUTH-TO-NORTH WATER
2014年
2期
63-66
,共4页
王涛%马俊青%罗盛%赵林明%王金鹏
王濤%馬俊青%囉盛%趙林明%王金鵬
왕도%마준청%라성%조림명%왕금붕
南水北调%冰情%预报%二十四节气%立冬%气温转负日期%相关系数
南水北調%冰情%預報%二十四節氣%立鼕%氣溫轉負日期%相關繫數
남수북조%빙정%예보%이십사절기%입동%기온전부일기%상관계수
South-to-North Water Diversion Project%ice condition%forecast%twenty-four solar terms%beginning of winter%date when temperature becomes negative%correlation coefficient
通过分析中国传统农历节气同水文学之间的密切关系，论证了其在水文预报中应用的科学依据。以农历二十四节气中立冬日作为时间统计的坐标系基准点，利用经Levenberg-Marquart算法的改进BP神经网络，预报了南水北调黄河以北沿线主要城市气温稳定转负日期。首先比较新乡、安阳、邢台、石家庄、保定和北京6个城市1957年-2006年气温稳定转负日相关系数，结果显示农历坐标系下预报目标的相关系数均比公历坐标系的大。表明当以立冬日作为统计坐标的基准点时，气温稳定转负日期的相关性更强。同时将农历和公历分别作为时间坐标系，各预报16组次，对预报结果进行对比发现，农历坐标系下合格组次为13组，而公历坐标系下的合格组次为11组。显然，农历坐标系下预报结果比公历坐标系好，预报精度较高，说明农历中二十四节气在冬季气温转负日期中应用的探索是可行的。
通過分析中國傳統農歷節氣同水文學之間的密切關繫，論證瞭其在水文預報中應用的科學依據。以農歷二十四節氣中立鼕日作為時間統計的坐標繫基準點，利用經Levenberg-Marquart算法的改進BP神經網絡，預報瞭南水北調黃河以北沿線主要城市氣溫穩定轉負日期。首先比較新鄉、安暘、邢檯、石傢莊、保定和北京6箇城市1957年-2006年氣溫穩定轉負日相關繫數，結果顯示農歷坐標繫下預報目標的相關繫數均比公歷坐標繫的大。錶明噹以立鼕日作為統計坐標的基準點時，氣溫穩定轉負日期的相關性更彊。同時將農歷和公歷分彆作為時間坐標繫，各預報16組次，對預報結果進行對比髮現，農歷坐標繫下閤格組次為13組，而公歷坐標繫下的閤格組次為11組。顯然，農歷坐標繫下預報結果比公歷坐標繫好，預報精度較高，說明農歷中二十四節氣在鼕季氣溫轉負日期中應用的探索是可行的。
통과분석중국전통농력절기동수문학지간적밀절관계，론증료기재수문예보중응용적과학의거。이농력이십사절기중입동일작위시간통계적좌표계기준점，이용경Levenberg-Marquart산법적개진BP신경망락，예보료남수북조황하이북연선주요성시기온은정전부일기。수선비교신향、안양、형태、석가장、보정화북경6개성시1957년-2006년기온은정전부일상관계수，결과현시농력좌표계하예보목표적상관계수균비공력좌표계적대。표명당이입동일작위통계좌표적기준점시，기온은정전부일기적상관성경강。동시장농력화공력분별작위시간좌표계，각예보16조차，대예보결과진행대비발현，농력좌표계하합격조차위13조，이공력좌표계하적합격조차위11조。현연，농력좌표계하예보결과비공력좌표계호，예보정도교고，설명농력중이십사절기재동계기온전부일기중응용적탐색시가행적。
The relationship between Chinese traditional twenty-four solar terms and hydrology is analyzed and the scientific basis of using solar terms in the hydrological prediction is developed .The Beginning of Winter is selected as the datum point of the statistic date in the prediction .The BP-ANNs model improved by Levenberg-Marquartalgorithm is introduced to predict the dates when temperature becomes negative in the cities of the north of Yellow River .The correlation coefficients of the date when temperature becomes negative in Xinxiang ,Anyang ,Xingtai ,Shijiazhuang city ,Baoding ,and Beijing from 1957 to 2005 were compared .All of the correlation coefficients in the coordinate system of Chinese lunar calendar are greater than those in the co-ordinate system of solar calendar ,which suggests that the correlation of the date when temperature becomes negative is stronger in the coordinate system of Chinese lunar calendar .In addition ,the coordinate system of Chinese lunar calendar and solar calen-dar were used to predict 16 sets of dates when temperature becomes negative .The results showed that the coordinate system of Chinese lunar calendar predicts 13 sets of acceptable data while the coordinate system of solar calendar predicts 11 sets of ac-ceptable data .Therefore ,the application of the traditional twenty-four solar terms in the prediction of date when temperature be-comes negative is feasible .
