CAJ | 학술논문

准确分析用水量影响因素和科学预测用水量，对于实现水资源的优化配置，缓解经济增长与水资源日趋尖锐的矛盾，具有十分重要的意义。通过对山东省2001年-2010年用水量进行分析，得到如下结论：用水结构中生产用水所占比例最大，其次为生活用水，生态用水最小，总用水量中第一产业用水比例最大，接近75％（占总用水量）；总用水量自2005年后总体上呈缓慢上升趋势，第二产业用水量呈下降趋势，第三产业、生活用水量年际变化不大，生态用水量呈上升趋势；影响用水量的主要因素包括三次产业产值、灌溉面积和人口，降雨量对第一产业用水有一定影响。
준학분석용수량영향인소화과학예측용수량，대우실현수자원적우화배치，완해경제증장여수자원일추첨예적모순，구유십분중요적의의。통과대산동성2001년-2010년용수량진행분석，득도여하결론：용수결구중생산용수소점비례최대，기차위생활용수，생태용수최소，총용수량중제일산업용수비례최대，접근75％（점총용수량）；총용수량자2005년후총체상정완만상승추세，제이산업용수량정하강추세，제삼산업、생활용수량년제변화불대，생태용수량정상승추세；영향용수량적주요인소포괄삼차산업산치、관개면적화인구，강우량대제일산업용수유일정영향。
Accurate analysis of the impact factors of water consumption and scientific prediction of water consumption are of im-portant significance to achieve the optimal allocation of water resources and alleviate the contradiction between economic growth and water resources .Water consumption of Shandong Province was analyzed from 2001 to 2010 .The results showed that the in-dustrial water consumption accounts for the largest proportion in the water consumption structure ,followed by domestic water consumption and ecological water consumption .The first industrial water consumption accounted for 75% of total water con-sumption ,which was the largest proportion The total water consumption showed a slow increasing trend since 2005 ,while the second industrial water consumption showed a decreasing trend .The variations of third industrial water consumption and do-mestic water consumption were insignificant ,while the ecological water consumption showed an increasing trend .The main fac-tors affecting water consumption included the output value of three industries ,irrigated area ,and population .In addition ,rainfall has a certain impact on the first industrial water consumption .