湖南农业科学
湖南農業科學
호남농업과학
HUNAN AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES
2014年
4期
45-47
,共3页
晚稻%纹枯病%病株率%发生等级%预测
晚稻%紋枯病%病株率%髮生等級%預測
만도%문고병%병주솔%발생등급%예측
late rice%sheath blight%rate of diseased plant%occurrence grade%prediction
根据2011~2013年醴陵市晚稻纹枯病病株率数据田间观测资料，建立了基于气象因子的水稻纹枯病发生等级预报模型，并进行了回代预测检验。结果表明：晚稻日病株率分别与日平均气温、日降水量、日照时数、日平均相对湿度进行统计分析，晚稻纹枯病发生与日平均气温和日降水量存在显著的相关性，得到了纹枯病日病株率预报方程，最终建立了晚稻纹枯病发生等级预测模型。经过回代预测检验，准确率达到95.8%，具有较好的预报效果，能反映病情的发生情况，对纹枯病的防治有一定的指导作用。
根據2011~2013年醴陵市晚稻紋枯病病株率數據田間觀測資料，建立瞭基于氣象因子的水稻紋枯病髮生等級預報模型，併進行瞭迴代預測檢驗。結果錶明：晚稻日病株率分彆與日平均氣溫、日降水量、日照時數、日平均相對濕度進行統計分析，晚稻紋枯病髮生與日平均氣溫和日降水量存在顯著的相關性，得到瞭紋枯病日病株率預報方程，最終建立瞭晚稻紋枯病髮生等級預測模型。經過迴代預測檢驗，準確率達到95.8%，具有較好的預報效果，能反映病情的髮生情況，對紋枯病的防治有一定的指導作用。
근거2011~2013년례릉시만도문고병병주솔수거전간관측자료，건립료기우기상인자적수도문고병발생등급예보모형，병진행료회대예측검험。결과표명：만도일병주솔분별여일평균기온、일강수량、일조시수、일평균상대습도진행통계분석，만도문고병발생여일평균기온화일강수량존재현저적상관성，득도료문고병일병주솔예보방정，최종건립료만도문고병발생등급예측모형。경과회대예측검험，준학솔체도95.8%，구유교호적예보효과，능반영병정적발생정황，대문고병적방치유일정적지도작용。
According to incidence data of sheath blight of late rice in Liling city in 2011~2013, the occurrence grade prediction model of sheath blight for late rice had been established based on meteorological factors, and a back to generation forecast verification had been conducted. The results showed that a statistical analysis was conducted between daily rate of diseased plant of late rice and daily average temperature, daily precipitation, daily sunshine hours, daily relative humidity, the occurrence of sheath blight of late rice had significant correlation with the daily average temperature and daily precipitation, thereby getting the forecast equation of daily rate of diseased plant, and finally the occurrence grade predication model of sheath blight of late rice was established. Through back to generation forecast verification, the accuracy rate of the predication model reached 95.8%. Therefore, the occurrence grade predication model of sheath blight of late rice has good forecast effect and can reflect the actual situations of disease, it has a certain guiding role in prevention and control of sheath blight for late rice.
