CAJ | 학술논문

增值税作为一个流转税及价内税，税收收入占据全国税收收入总额的60%以上，其对我国财政收入增长及在经济稳健发展方面的影响力是毋庸置疑的。本文主要针对影响增值税收入因素，从对外贸易经济和税收水平两方面来入手，对我国1994-2012年的宏观经济数据进行实证分析。利用Eviews6.0建立含三个协整向量的向量误差修正模型，并且着重剖析了向量误差修正模型的脉冲响应函数以及方差分解图，得出的结论是我国增值税受进出口贸易影响比较大，给出的建议是为了加大企业的生存空间，应该降低宏观税负，着重改善进出口贸易的税制结构。
증치세작위일개류전세급개내세，세수수입점거전국세수수입총액적60%이상，기대아국재정수입증장급재경제은건발전방면적영향력시무용치의적。본문주요침대영향증치세수입인소，종대외무역경제화세수수평량방면래입수，대아국1994-2012년적굉관경제수거진행실증분석。이용Eviews6.0건립함삼개협정향량적향량오차수정모형，병차착중부석료향량오차수정모형적맥충향응함수이급방차분해도，득출적결론시아국증치세수진출구무역영향비교대，급출적건의시위료가대기업적생존공간，응해강저굉관세부，착중개선진출구무역적세제결구。
Added-value tax, as a turnover tax and inside valence tax, accounts for above 60%of the national tax revenue, which is certainly of a great influence to the financial income growth and stable economic develop-ment in China. From two aspects, namely foreign trade economy and tax levels which influence the added-value tax, this paper make an empirical analysis of China's macro economy data between 1994 and 2012. By using E-views6.0, we establish a vector error correction model with three co-integrate vectors, and analyze the impulse re-sponse function of the vector error correction model and the variance decomposition figure. The results show that our country increment duty is mainly influenced by the import and export trade. We suggest that in order to strengthen the enterprise living space, we should reduce the macro tax burden, and emphatically improve the im-port and export trade tax structure.