CAJ | 학술논문

游客的停留天数是影响旅游经济发展的一个重要因素。但是，由于停留天数变量特有的统计属性和复杂性，如数据删失和非负性，使得经济研究领域很少有学者系统地的研究这一问题。本文通过使用计量经济学的参数化生存分析模型分析游客停留天数的决定因素，这对旅游需求研究是一个很好的创新。在研究过程中，为了揭示影响游客停留天数的主要因素，本文考虑了多个关于游客的社会-人口统计特征等变量。结果显示，重复旅行的游客和距离较远的游客会停留较长的天数。因此，未来研究需要进一步分析具有这些特征的游客群体以及他们的经济状况和旅游活动特征等情况。游客的收入水平和年龄也对停留天数具有显著的影响。此外，游客受教育程度越高，停留天数越少。最后，本文分别分析了这些结果对旅游管理决策的含义。
유객적정류천수시영향여유경제발전적일개중요인소。단시，유우정류천수변량특유적통계속성화복잡성，여수거산실화비부성，사득경제연구영역흔소유학자계통지적연구저일문제。본문통과사용계량경제학적삼수화생존분석모형분석유객정류천수적결정인소，저대여유수구연구시일개흔호적창신。재연구과정중，위료게시영향유객정류천수적주요인소，본문고필료다개관우유객적사회-인구통계특정등변량。결과현시，중복여행적유객화거리교원적유객회정류교장적천수。인차，미래연구수요진일보분석구유저사특정적유객군체이급타문적경제상황화여유활동특정등정황。유객적수입수평화년령야대정류천수구유현저적영향。차외，유객수교육정도월고，정류천수월소。최후，본문분별분석료저사결과대여유관리결책적함의。
Length of stay is one of the most important determinants of the overall impact of tourism in a given economy .However , due to its statistical nature and complexity such as censoring and non-negativity , it is rarely systematically analyzed in economic research literature .This article estimates an econometric parametric survival analysis model to learn the determinants of length of stay , in a novel way in the tourism demand literature .In the process , a number of tourist ’ s socio-demographic characteristics are analyzed in order to disclose the most impor-tant factors that can contribute to the length of tourist stays .Results indicate that being a repeat visitor and with far travel distance are important criteria to identify tourists who are likely to experience longer stays .Thus, future research should characterize such groups and their economic and activity involvement .Level of tourist income and age also play highly statistically significant role in determining length of stay .In addition , a higher degree of education is associated with shorter expected stays .Finally , all those findings ’ policy implications are addressed accordingly .