CAJ | 학술논문

广州市受自然因素制约，能源资源稀缺，而随着经济的快速发展，能源需求增长迅速。以广州市1988-2010年的数据为基础，运用协整理论结合库兹涅茨曲线等方法，分析广州市能源消费和经济增长的关系。研究结果表明：1）经济增长总量是能源消费总量的格兰杰原因，第二产业经济增长是第二产业能源消费的格兰杰原因，他们都处于库兹涅茨曲线倒“U”型假说的前半段；2）第三产业能源消费是第三产业经济增长的格兰杰原因，其库兹涅茨曲线呈现正相关线性关系；3）第一产业能源消费和经济增长不存在长期均衡关系，两指标也不适用于分析库兹涅茨曲线关系。随着广州市经济结构转型升级，受提高能源利用效率的高新技术和节能技术的大量开发运用等其他多方面因素的影响，未来能源消费和经济增长的因果关系会发生改变。因此，不同发展时期应考虑不同产业结构以及技术进步等的发展，制定与之相适应的能源政策。
엄주시수자연인소제약，능원자원희결，이수착경제적쾌속발전，능원수구증장신속。이엄주시1988-2010년적수거위기출，운용협정이론결합고자열자곡선등방법，분석엄주시능원소비화경제증장적관계。연구결과표명：1）경제증장총량시능원소비총량적격란걸원인，제이산업경제증장시제이산업능원소비적격란걸원인，타문도처우고자열자곡선도“U”형가설적전반단；2）제삼산업능원소비시제삼산업경제증장적격란걸원인，기고자열자곡선정현정상관선성관계；3）제일산업능원소비화경제증장불존재장기균형관계，량지표야불괄용우분석고자열자곡선관계。수착엄주시경제결구전형승급，수제고능원이용효솔적고신기술화절능기술적대량개발운용등기타다방면인소적영향，미래능원소비화경제증장적인과관계회발생개변。인차，불동발전시기응고필불동산업결구이급기술진보등적발전，제정여지상괄응적능원정책。
With the rapid development of economy, energy demand is growing rapidly. Guangzhou is conditioned by natural factors but lack of energy resources. This study investigates the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for Guangzhou during the period 1988-2010 through the application of cointegration test, error correction model, Granger causality test and Kuznets curve. The results indicate that there is unidirectional Granger causality running from GDP to total energy consumption and secondary industry GDP to the secondary industry energy consumption. They are in the first half of Kuznets curve inverted-U hypothesis. The authors find that there is unidirectional Granger causality running from tertiary industry energy consumption to the tertiary industry GDP and Kuznets curve presents a positive linear correlationship. Furthermore, there is no long-run equilibrium relationship between the primary industry GDP and industrial energy consumption and the two indicators are not suitable for Kuznets curve analysis. With structural transformation and upgrade of the economy, the massive development and use of advanced technology in efficiency improvement of energy consumption and energy saving and so on, causal relationship of energy consumption and economic growth will change. So the government must formulate the suitable energy policy by considering the different industrial structure and technical progress and development in different development period.