CAJ | 학술논문

利用模拟测试方法分析几个重要因子对冰雹指数误差的影响，并根据遵义新一代多普勒天气雷达资料，以探测概率、临界成功指数和误报率为衡量指标，对2008年3月至2012年7月12次冰雹天气过程中25个降雹风暴和72个非降雹风暴的冰雹指数进行分析评估。结果表明：H0、反射率因子垂直廓线和目标距雷达的距离等因子对POSH误差的影响较大，Hm20对其影响较小。POH识别冰雹云的误报率较高，临界成功指数较小；POSH识别效果好于POH，通过增大阈值可以提高临界成功指数和减小误报率；但当阈值太大时，探测概率会较低，为了获得较大的探测概率和临界成功指数，减小误报率，以POSH＝70为阈值时识别效果最好；在POSH识别冰雹云时加上VIL＞20 kg·m-2的条件对探测概率没有影响，但是当阈值小于90时，可减少误报率和提高临界成功指数。
이용모의측시방법분석궤개중요인자대빙박지수오차적영향，병근거준의신일대다보륵천기뢰체자료，이탐측개솔、림계성공지수화오보솔위형량지표，대2008년3월지2012년7월12차빙박천기과정중25개강박풍폭화72개비강박풍폭적빙박지수진행분석평고。결과표명：H0、반사솔인자수직곽선화목표거뢰체적거리등인자대POSH오차적영향교대，Hm20대기영향교소。POH식별빙박운적오보솔교고，림계성공지수교소；POSH식별효과호우POH，통과증대역치가이제고림계성공지수화감소오보솔；단당역치태대시，탐측개솔회교저，위료획득교대적탐측개솔화림계성공지수，감소오보솔，이POSH＝70위역치시식별효과최호；재POSH식별빙박운시가상VIL＞20 kg·m-2적조건대탐측개솔몰유영향，단시당역치소우90시，가감소오보솔화제고림계성공지수。
The effects of several important factors on the error of hail index were analyzed by a simulation test method.Using the measurement indexes of probability of detection (POD),critical success index (ICS)and false a-larm ratio (RFA),the 25 hail storms and 72 non-hail storms among 12 hail processes during March of 2008 to July of 2012 were assessed based on the new generation Doppler weather radar data in Zunyi City.The results indicate that H0 ,the vertical profile of reflectivity factor and distance between the target and radar have great influence on POSH error,while Hm20 has insignificant influence.There are high RFA and low ICS when POH are used to recog-nize hail cloud.Identification effect of POSH is better than that of POH.Increasing threshold can enhance ICS and decrease RFA.The POD is low when the threshold is larger.POSH=70 is the best threshold,with which high POD and ICS and low RFA can be obtained.POD has no change when POSH and VIL>20 kg·m-2 are used together to i-dentify hail cloud,but lower RFA and higher ICS can be obtained when the threshold of POSH is less than 90.