CAJ | 학술논문

大连黄海、渤海海浪数值预报系统采用WAVEWATCH III模式进行海浪预报，预报产品包括48 h内浪高、周期和浪向的逐3 h预报，并可对其进行检验。结果表明：WAVEWATCH III模式对渤海中部浪高模拟较好，浪高预报TS为71.7％，对近岸海区浪高模拟相对较差。个例检验表明，浪高最大值模拟较好，模拟浪高最大值出现的时间与实况基本吻合，浪高变化趋势预报也较好。WAVEWATCH III模式对两个周期个例进行检验，预报误差最低可达0.17 s，预报效果较好。
대련황해、발해해랑수치예보계통채용WAVEWATCH III모식진행해랑예보，예보산품포괄48 h내랑고、주기화랑향적축3 h예보，병가대기진행검험。결과표명：WAVEWATCH III모식대발해중부랑고모의교호，랑고예보TS위71.7％，대근안해구랑고모의상대교차。개례검험표명，랑고최대치모의교호，모의랑고최대치출현적시간여실황기본문합，랑고변화추세예보야교호。WAVEWATCH III모식대량개주기개례진행검험，예보오차최저가체0.17 s，예보효과교호。
Sea wave was forecasted by the WAVEWATCH III model in the Yellow Sea and the Bohai Sea of Dalian.The products from the sea wave numerical forecast system include sea wave height,sea wave period and sea wave direction every three hours within 48 hours,and all were tested.The results indicate that the sea wave height could be simulated well by the WAVEWATCH III model in the middle of the Bohai Sea and TS (Threat Score)of sea wave height reaches 7 1.7%,while that is not well near the coast.The analysis of some cases shows that the maximum sea wave height and the trend of sea wave height could be simulated well.The occurrence time of the maximum sea wave height from the model agrees with that of the observation.Moreover,the simulated two sea wave period cases are tested,and the lowest error is 0.17 s.The forecast effect of sea wave period by the WAVEWATCH III model is good.