CAJ | 학술논문

国内外研究者对技术预测给予了不同的阐释。专利分析作为技术预测的一种有效工具，可以为技术创新提供有力的决策支持。针对特定技术领域的预测，是基于“专利三性”隐含的技术发展方向、技术发展水平和技术发展潜力的特征所作出的判断。因此，可以建立一个基于专利分析的技术预测概念模型。概念模型在纵向层次上分为总预测层、预测综合层、预测分析层和预测信息层。在此基础上，选择和运用相应的专利分析指标和方法，形成一个技术预测的专利分析方法框架，以指导实际的技术预测活动。技术预测的效用可以用技术的发展方向、发展水平和发展潜力这三个变量予以描述。但专利分析也存在局限性，需要与其它方法配合使用。
국내외연구자대기술예측급여료불동적천석。전리분석작위기술예측적일충유효공구，가이위기술창신제공유력적결책지지。침대특정기술영역적예측，시기우“전리삼성”은함적기술발전방향、기술발전수평화기술발전잠력적특정소작출적판단。인차，가이건립일개기우전리분석적기술예측개념모형。개념모형재종향층차상분위총예측층、예측종합층、예측분석층화예측신식층。재차기출상，선택화운용상응적전리분석지표화방법，형성일개기술예측적전리분석방법광가，이지도실제적기술예측활동。기술예측적효용가이용기술적발전방향、발전수평화발전잠력저삼개변량여이묘술。단전리분석야존재국한성，수요여기타방법배합사용。
There are different definitions for technology forecast domestically and abroad. Being an effective tool for technology forecast, patent analysis is very helpful to technological innovation decision-making. Because the forecast in specific technology fields is based on features of technology development direction, level and potential implicated in the “three natures of patent”, so a conceptual model of technology forecast can be built on the basis of patent analysis. The proposed model consists four layers of overall forecast, forecast con-solidated, predictive analysis and forecast information from a longitudinal level. Based on this, corresponding indicators and methods of patent analysis can be chosen and used to build a patent analysis frame for technology forecast to guide the actual activities of technology forecast. The effectiveness of technology forecast can be described with the three variables of development direction, level and potential of technology. And it is suggested that other methods be used together with patent analysis because of its limitations.