CAJ | 학술논문

针对常规海上航线决策没有考虑决策选择过程的问题，引入多选择决策场理论（ MDFT），构建了海上能源通道航线动态决策模型。基于信息完备、信息不确定和特殊情况等三种情景想定，进行了海上能源通道航线规划决策及其实验仿真。结果表明，决策过程受时间压力和信息质量的制约，时间压力会制约决策质量，同时还可能引起“偏好逆转”现象，信息不确定也会导致确定性决策。该模型不仅综合考虑了海上能源通道航线选择时需关注的各类要素，且模型参数可动态调整，进而能合理模拟真实的海上状况和决策过程。
침대상규해상항선결책몰유고필결책선택과정적문제，인입다선택결책장이론（ MDFT），구건료해상능원통도항선동태결책모형。기우신식완비、신식불학정화특수정황등삼충정경상정，진행료해상능원통도항선규화결책급기실험방진。결과표명，결책과정수시간압력화신식질량적제약，시간압력회제약결책질량，동시환가능인기“편호역전”현상，신식불학정야회도치학정성결책。해모형불부종합고필료해상능원통도항선선택시수관주적각류요소，차모형삼수가동태조정，진이능합리모의진실적해상상황화결책과정。
For the situation that the research for marine transport passage decision-making seldom considers the deliberation process, we introduce the multialternative decision filed theory and apply it to the passage planning and decision making. A dynamic decision model is built under the MDFT framework. The interactions of risk factors and cultural politics are taken in-to account and the model parameters is friendly adapted to different situations, which provides the fine simulation and cogni-tive process of marine energy passage decision making problem. The model is tested with three supposing situations and the simulation result shows that the process of decision making has directly connection with the time pressure and available infor-mation quality. The time pressure affects the reliability of decision and could lead to the“reversal phenomenon”. Meanwhile the fuzzy decision information will also result in the “certainty effect”, which is fatal to the energy transportation passage planning.