CAJ | 학술논문

为定量地评估北京城市热岛现状并预测未来北京城市热岛发展趋势，分别采用气温资料、遥感资料和城市规划资料进行了研究分析。对北京20个气象台站按照台站距离城市中心的距离划分为远郊、近郊和城市三类，分别计算三种类型站点经过海拔订正后的年平均气温，利用1971-2012年城市站和远郊站的年平均气温差值估算北京气温热岛的时间变化；利用1987-2012年的NOAA/AVHRR和Landsat-TM两种不同分辨率的卫星资料，采用定量化的指标--地表热岛强度和热岛比例指数分别估算了不同时期北京地区和城六区热岛强度和范围，并对北京平原地区的城市热岛状况进行了评估；利用2020年的北京城市规划土地利用资料，结合2008年的城市热岛现状监测结果对2020年的北京热岛状况进行了模拟分析。研究结果表明，北京城市的气温热岛与遥感监测地表热岛在时间变化趋势上具有一致性，不同分辨率卫星资料监测地表热岛在时空分布上也具有一致性。其中1971-2012年，以年平均气温计算的北京城市热岛强度增温率为0.33℃·(10 a)-1，近5年（2008-2012）平均热岛为1.12℃。遥感监测结果显示1987-2001年北京地区的热岛持续增强，2001年之后由于北京申奥的成功进行了大面积的旧城改造和绿化，使得城市热岛强度和范围在2004年和2008年有所降低，2008年之后城市热岛继续向东、南和北方向扩展，并出现了中心城区热岛与通州、顺义、大兴、昌平热岛连成片的趋势，到2012年城六区热岛面积百分比已从1990年的31%增加到77%。由热岛比例指数确定的北京各区县热岛强度排名前三分别是城区、海淀和丰台，延庆县最低。对2020年城市规划图热岛模拟结果显示北京热岛已由“摊大饼”演变为“中心+周边分散”模式，中心城区热岛强度和范围明显减弱，周边广大远郊区将出现分散型小热岛，城六区热岛面积将从2012年的77%降至为60%，显示北京未来通过城市规划改善城市热岛任务的艰巨性。為定量地評估北京城市熱島現狀併預測未來北京城市熱島髮展趨勢，分彆採用氣溫資料、遙感資料和城市規劃資料進行瞭研究分析。對北京20箇氣象檯站按照檯站距離城市中心的距離劃分為遠郊、近郊和城市三類，分彆計算三種類型站點經過海拔訂正後的年平均氣溫，利用1971-2012年城市站和遠郊站的年平均氣溫差值估算北京氣溫熱島的時間變化；利用1987-2012年的NOAA/AVHRR和Landsat-TM兩種不同分辨率的衛星資料，採用定量化的指標--地錶熱島彊度和熱島比例指數分彆估算瞭不同時期北京地區和城六區熱島彊度和範圍，併對北京平原地區的城市熱島狀況進行瞭評估；利用2020年的北京城市規劃土地利用資料，結閤2008年的城市熱島現狀鑑測結果對2020年的北京熱島狀況進行瞭模擬分析。研究結果錶明，北京城市的氣溫熱島與遙感鑑測地錶熱島在時間變化趨勢上具有一緻性，不同分辨率衛星資料鑑測地錶熱島在時空分佈上也具有一緻性。其中1971-2012年，以年平均氣溫計算的北京城市熱島彊度增溫率為0.33℃·(10 a)-1，近5年（2008-2012）平均熱島為1.12℃。遙感鑑測結果顯示1987-2001年北京地區的熱島持續增彊，2001年之後由于北京申奧的成功進行瞭大麵積的舊城改造和綠化，使得城市熱島彊度和範圍在2004年和2008年有所降低，2008年之後城市熱島繼續嚮東、南和北方嚮擴展，併齣現瞭中心城區熱島與通州、順義、大興、昌平熱島連成片的趨勢，到2012年城六區熱島麵積百分比已從1990年的31%增加到77%。由熱島比例指數確定的北京各區縣熱島彊度排名前三分彆是城區、海澱和豐檯，延慶縣最低。對2020年城市規劃圖熱島模擬結果顯示北京熱島已由“攤大餅”縯變為“中心+週邊分散”模式，中心城區熱島彊度和範圍明顯減弱，週邊廣大遠郊區將齣現分散型小熱島，城六區熱島麵積將從2012年的77%降至為60%，顯示北京未來通過城市規劃改善城市熱島任務的艱巨性。
위정량지평고북경성시열도현상병예측미래북경성시열도발전추세，분별채용기온자료、요감자료화성시규화자료진행료연구분석。대북경20개기상태참안조태참거리성시중심적거리화분위원교、근교화성시삼류，분별계산삼충류형참점경과해발정정후적년평균기온，이용1971-2012년성시참화원교참적년평균기온차치고산북경기온열도적시간변화；이용1987-2012년적NOAA/AVHRR화Landsat-TM량충불동분변솔적위성자료，채용정양화적지표--지표열도강도화열도비례지수분별고산료불동시기북경지구화성륙구열도강도화범위，병대북경평원지구적성시열도상황진행료평고；이용2020년적북경성시규화토지이용자료，결합2008년적성시열도현상감측결과대2020년적북경열도상황진행료모의분석。연구결과표명，북경성시적기온열도여요감감측지표열도재시간변화추세상구유일치성，불동분변솔위성자료감측지표열도재시공분포상야구유일치성。기중1971-2012년，이년평균기온계산적북경성시열도강도증온솔위0.33℃·(10 a)-1，근5년（2008-2012）평균열도위1.12℃。요감감측결과현시1987-2001년북경지구적열도지속증강，2001년지후유우북경신오적성공진행료대면적적구성개조화녹화，사득성시열도강도화범위재2004년화2008년유소강저，2008년지후성시열도계속향동、남화북방향확전，병출현료중심성구열도여통주、순의、대흥、창평열도련성편적추세，도2012년성륙구열도면적백분비이종1990년적31%증가도77%。유열도비례지수학정적북경각구현열도강도배명전삼분별시성구、해정화봉태，연경현최저。대2020년성시규화도열도모의결과현시북경열도이유“탄대병”연변위“중심+주변분산”모식，중심성구열도강도화범위명현감약，주변엄대원교구장출현분산형소열도，성륙구열도면적장종2012년적77%강지위60%，현시북경미래통과성시규화개선성시열도임무적간거성。
In order to quantitatively evaluate the current situation of the urban heat island and forecast the trend of the heat island development for Beijing in future, air temperature data, remote sensing data and the city planning data are used to monitor and assess the current heat island and simulate the future heat island distribution in Beijing. Based on the distance between the central of Beijing urban and 20 different weather stations, the weather stations are divided into three distinct types such as the exurban, suburb and urban stations, which the annual mean air temperature is corrected by the sea level elevation, respectively. The temporal variation of the annual mean air temperature is estimated from the difference of average air temperature between urban stations and exurban stations for the period of 1971-2012. The intensity and spatial distribution of the heat island for Beijing and six-district regions is obtained using two indexes of the heat island intensity and heat island proportion from the two different spatial resolution satellite data. They are NOAA/AVHRR and Landsat-TM, respectively. The heat island of Beijing plain area is evaluated, too. Using the monitoring result of the urban heat island intensity in 2008, together with the land use types of city planning for 2020 in Beijing city, the heat island in 2020 is simulated. Results show that temporal change trends of the urban heat island obtained from the observations of weather stations and remote sensing have a good agreement. The difference of the temporal and spatial distribution of the heat island from different satellite data is small. For example, the warming rate of the city heat island intensity is 0.33 ℃·(10 a)-1 with the mean of 1.12 ℃ in recent five years(2008-2012) calculated from the annual mean air temperature. Observed results from the remote sensing show that heat island intensity has consistently enhanced for the period of 1987-2001. However, after 2001, the intensity and area range of the heat island is reduced for 2004 and 2008 owing to the successful Olympic bid, large-scale old city reconstructions and greening measures implemented. After 2008, the heat island spatially expands except the direction of west and the blending of Tongzhou, Shunyi, Changping and Daxing district with the central city tends to be obvious. Percent of the heat island area in six-district regions rises from 31%in 1990 to 77%in 2012. Based on the heat island intensity scores, the top three of the heat island intensity is Chengqu, Haidian and Fengtai, respectively and Yanqing is the least influenced by the heat island. The simulation results of the urban heat island for 2020 show that the pattern of the Beijing heat island will be changed from the urban center-sprawl to center-periphery. The intensity and scope of heat island in six-district regions will be obviously decreased but the small distributed heat island will be more around the exurban. The area of the heat island in the six-district regions will decrease from 77%in 2012 to 60%in 2020, which shows the difficult and complexity of reducing the urban heat island only based on the city planning for Beijing.