CAJ | 학술논문

伪周期时间序列是一种广泛存在的数据形式，它具有伪周期性、非平稳性和特征值等特征。对这类时间序列进行预测，具有很强的研究和应用意义。然而，目前的相关研究对伪周期时间序列的关注度不足，一些<br>　　已有的时间序列预测方法在应用到伪周期时间序列上时，会造成误差的累积，使得预测效果很差。为了解决这些问题，总结了伪周期时间序列的特征，并提出了SPG-Suite预测方法，很好地解决了传统方法无法解决的问题。最后，在真实的数据集上进行了实验，并与传统方法进行了对比，实验结果表明，SPG-Suite方法在预测精度上具有明显的优势，并具有较强的可扩展性。
위주기시간서렬시일충엄범존재적수거형식，타구유위주기성、비평은성화특정치등특정。대저류시간서렬진행예측，구유흔강적연구화응용의의。연이，목전적상관연구대위주기시간서렬적관주도불족，일사<br>　　이유적시간서렬예측방법재응용도위주기시간서렬상시，회조성오차적루적，사득예측효과흔차。위료해결저사문제，총결료위주기시간서렬적특정，병제출료SPG-Suite예측방법，흔호지해결료전통방법무법해결적문제。최후，재진실적수거집상진행료실험，병여전통방법진행료대비，실험결과표명，SPG-Suite방법재예측정도상구유명현적우세，병구유교강적가확전성。
Pseudo periodic time series is a kind of widespread data form with features including pseudo periodicity, non-stationary and transition values. Forecasting this kind of data is significantly important on both research and applica-tion fields. However, current research pays insufficient attention on pseudo periodic time series. Forecasting errors are cumulated when using the existing methods in pseudo periodic time series, which makes the prediction effect poor. This paper firstly analyzes and summarizes the features of pseudo periodic time series. Then, it proposes SPG-Suite forecasting method to solve the specific pseudo periodic time series problem. The experimental results on the real datasets show that the SPG-Suite method has better performance on forecasting accuracy and scalability compared with the existing methods.