CAJ | 학술논문

在总结气候变化对流域水资源影响研究方法的基础上，分别构建了长江流域水量平衡简化模型和汉江流域9 km ×9 km的VIC分布式水文模型，并利用GCMs的输出驱动所建水文模型，预测了长江和汉江流域水资源在气候变化背景下的变化趋势。研究结果表明，对于长江和汉江流域，尽管未来气温序列预测值有所差异，但气温升高的趋势是一致的，未来降水的变化相对气温而言更复杂，趋势性不明显。基于气候模式预测信息估算的未来100 a流域水资源量变化情况基本为，前40 a左右呈逐渐减小，之后总体呈逐渐增大的趋势。
재총결기후변화대류역수자원영향연구방법적기출상，분별구건료장강류역수량평형간화모형화한강류역9 km ×9 km적VIC분포식수문모형，병이용GCMs적수출구동소건수문모형，예측료장강화한강류역수자원재기후변화배경하적변화추세。연구결과표명，대우장강화한강류역，진관미래기온서렬예측치유소차이，단기온승고적추세시일치적，미래강수적변화상대기온이언경복잡，추세성불명현。기우기후모식예측신식고산적미래100 a류역수자원량변화정황기본위，전40 a좌우정축점감소，지후총체정축점증대적추세。
Based on summary of research approaches for the influence of climate change on water resources, a simplified water balance model for Yangtze River Basin and a 9km × 9km VIC distribution hydrological model for Hanjiang River Basin are estab-lished and by using the hydrology model established by GCMs driving output, the water resources variation tendencies of Yangtze River and Hanjiang River under the climate change are predicted. The research results show that for Yangtze River and Hanjiang River, although the predicted values of atmospheric temperature are not same, the rising tendency of atmospheric temperature are the same;the precipitation variation in future is more complicated compared with atmospheric temperature and the variation tend-ency is not obvious;the basin water resources in the next 100 years estimated by prediction information of climate model basically will decrease in the first 40 years and then gradually increase.