CAJ | 학술논문

利用水文站实测数据，简要分析了近年来长江中下游干流径流过程变化特点，并通过调度模拟分析，定量确定了三峡工程运行调度对中下游干流水位流量的影响程度；继而结合中下游地区水资源利用现状和取用水特点，分析了控制性水利工程对中下游干流及河口水资源的有利和不利影响。研究认为，工程运行发挥了巨大的蓄洪补枯作用，对中下游及河口水资源利用总体上是有利的，能有效提高中下游供水保障，缓解枯水季节干旱缺水矛盾。为减缓9~11月水库蓄水期不利影响，一方面需要完善水库群综合调度目标，优化蓄水方案，另一方面需按照最严格水资源管理制度要求，制定水资源统一调配方案，同时加强中下游地区引调水工程取用水管理。
이용수문참실측수거，간요분석료근년래장강중하유간류경류과정변화특점，병통과조도모의분석，정량학정료삼협공정운행조도대중하유간류수위류량적영향정도；계이결합중하유지구수자원이용현상화취용수특점，분석료공제성수리공정대중하유간류급하구수자원적유리화불리영향。연구인위，공정운행발휘료거대적축홍보고작용，대중하유급하구수자원이용총체상시유리적，능유효제고중하유공수보장，완해고수계절간한결수모순。위감완9~11월수고축수기불리영향，일방면수요완선수고군종합조도목표，우화축수방안，령일방면수안조최엄격수자원관리제도요구，제정수자원통일조배방안，동시가강중하유지구인조수공정취용수관리。
The runoff variation characteristics of the mid-lower Yangtze River in recent years are analyzed briefly by using the measured data of hydrological stations. The influential degree of operation and dispatching of the Three Gorges Project ( TGP) to the water level and discharge of mid-lower reaches is determined quantitatively through simulation and analysis. The favorable and unfavorable influences of key water projects on water resources of mid-lower reaches and the estuary are analyzed with con-sideration of the water resources utilization situation and water intake and consumption of mid-lower reaches. The study shows that the huge effects of flood storage and water supplement in dry season is realized after completion and operation of the projects, which is favorable for the water resources utilization of mid-lower reaches and estuary on the whole and can strengthen the water supply guarantee and mitigate the water shortage in drought. In order to reduce the unfavorable impacts during water storage peri-od from September to October, the multi-objective comprehensive regulation of reservoir groups should be perfected and the im-poundment scheme should be optimized; meanwhile, the unified water resources allocation scheme should be prepared and the management of water diversion projects in mid-lower reaches should be improved according to the requirements of the Strictest Water Resources Management System.