CAJ | 학술논문

改革开放以来，大量人口向珠三角盆地聚集，不断增加的人口负荷给区域可持续发展带来巨大压力，也给珠三角盆地国土承载力带来挑战。以中国珠三角盆地和日本关东盆地作为研究区，选取2地2000和2010年普查人口和国土面积数据，进行计算、分析和对比，认为用可居住的平地人口密度才能真实反映区域人口压力状况。研究结果表明，日本关东盆地人口增长率从1995年开始已降到0.5%，人口承载力接近饱和。以人口承载力接近饱和的日本关东盆地为参考对象，对比中国珠三角盆地和日本关东盆地的平地人口密度，2000年时中国珠三角盆地的平地人口密度低于日本关东盆地，珠三角盆地还有一定吸纳人口的能力；2010年时中国珠三角盆地的平地人口密度已超过日本关东盆地，其人口规模已经接近其国土承载力极限，进一步集聚人口的能力已经非常有限。依靠人口集聚发展劳动密集型产业推动经济增长的传统发展模式已经难以为继，转变经济发展方式势在必行。
개혁개방이래，대량인구향주삼각분지취집，불단증가적인구부하급구역가지속발전대래거대압력，야급주삼각분지국토승재력대래도전。이중국주삼각분지화일본관동분지작위연구구，선취2지2000화2010년보사인구화국토면적수거，진행계산、분석화대비，인위용가거주적평지인구밀도재능진실반영구역인구압력상황。연구결과표명，일본관동분지인구증장솔종1995년개시이강도0.5%，인구승재력접근포화。이인구승재력접근포화적일본관동분지위삼고대상，대비중국주삼각분지화일본관동분지적평지인구밀도，2000년시중국주삼각분지적평지인구밀도저우일본관동분지，주삼각분지환유일정흡납인구적능력；2010년시중국주삼각분지적평지인구밀도이초과일본관동분지，기인구규모이경접근기국토승재력겁한，진일보집취인구적능력이경비상유한。의고인구집취발전노동밀집형산업추동경제증장적전통발전모식이경난이위계，전변경제발전방식세재필행。
The Pearl River Basin is located in south-central Guangdong Province, China. Covering Pearl River downstream, Pearl River Basin is surrounded by mountains and hills to its eastern, western and northern sides. There is an alluvial plain named Pearl River Delta in its central south built by mud and sands from the East River, West River and North River. Since China was carrying out Open and Reform policy in 1979, Pearl River Basin has experienced great growth in urbanization due to rapid social and economic development. A large amount of population moves to cities in Pearl River Basin for better and easier employment, sound environment for investment and good circumstances for living. As a result, the population density in Pearl River Delta rises year by year. However, the large population puts a great burden to cities and the rising population density leads to many problems like cities besieged by garbage, traffic congestion, water shortage, air pollution and climate change etc. These problems set an alarm for people and lead us to think of the following questions:Whether Pearl River Basin could sustain the current amount of population sustainably? Does Pearl River Basin have the potential to sustain more people? In order to find answers to those questions, this paper makes a comparative study of population density in relatively flat area between Pearl River Basin of China and Kanto Basin of Japan as the two regions are similar in geography and development function. Kanto Basin is located in south-central Honshu, Japan. It is famous for advanced economy, but also famous for the high density in population. Kyoto, once was the city with the highest population density, is one prefecture in Kanto Basin. From 1965 to 2005, the growth rate of population in Kanto Basin decreased year by year and dropped to 0.5%at 1995 and fluctuated little around 0.5%till 2010. What is more, at 2012, the growth rate of population in Kanto Basin dropped to 0.03%which means the number of people who migrate to Kanto Basin is nearly zero. This represents people would no longer like to migrate to cities in Kanto Basin maybe for the unsatisfied living condition or working environment. In other words, Kanto Basin could not sustain more people. The number of population and population density in Kanto Basin are at critical points. So this paper compares the population density in flat area between Pearl River Basin and Kanto Basin. And the conclusion is the population density in flat area of Pearl River Basin exceeds that of Kanto Basin in 2010 and the amount of population in Pearl River Basin is reaching its limit of carrying capacity. Pearl River Basin has little capacity to sustain more people.