广东水利水电
廣東水利水電
엄동수이수전
GUANGDONG WATER RESOURCES AND HYDROPOWER
2014年
2期
11-14
,共4页
需水量预测%灰色预测%重构背景值GM(1, 1)%等维递补GM(1, 1)
需水量預測%灰色預測%重構揹景值GM(1, 1)%等維遞補GM(1, 1)
수수량예측%회색예측%중구배경치GM(1, 1)%등유체보GM(1, 1)
prediction of water demand%grey predicting model%reconstruct ground value GM(1,1)%equi-dimensional supple-ment GM ( 1,1 )
灰色系统模型在贫信息、小样本的非线性系统建模中具有明显优势，适合对时间序列较短时的需水量进行预测。该文针对基本灰色预测模型背景值构造不合理及未充分利用新信息的缺点，采用重构背景值和等维递补原理对基本GM（1，1）模型进行改进，并利用改进模型对惠州市工业需水量进行拟合和预测，结果表明，改进模型预测精度更高，可作为城市需水量预测的一种方法。
灰色繫統模型在貧信息、小樣本的非線性繫統建模中具有明顯優勢，適閤對時間序列較短時的需水量進行預測。該文針對基本灰色預測模型揹景值構造不閤理及未充分利用新信息的缺點，採用重構揹景值和等維遞補原理對基本GM（1，1）模型進行改進，併利用改進模型對惠州市工業需水量進行擬閤和預測，結果錶明，改進模型預測精度更高，可作為城市需水量預測的一種方法。
회색계통모형재빈신식、소양본적비선성계통건모중구유명현우세，괄합대시간서렬교단시적수수량진행예측。해문침대기본회색예측모형배경치구조불합리급미충분이용신신식적결점，채용중구배경치화등유체보원리대기본GM（1，1）모형진행개진，병이용개진모형대혜주시공업수수량진행의합화예측，결과표명，개진모형예측정도경고，가작위성시수수량예측적일충방법。
Grey system model has obvious advantages in building poor-information and small-sample nonlinear model , which makes it suitable to predict water demand of short time series .However, the model has deficiencies: construction of the basic model's background value is unreasonable;new information is not completely used , so this article adopts reconstructing background value and equi-dimensional supplement theory to improve the basic GM (1, 1) grey model, then use the improved model to fit and predict the industrial water demand of HuiZhou city , the result shows that the improved model has higher predicting precision and can be used as one of the tools of predicting the urban water demand .
