广东水利水电
廣東水利水電
엄동수이수전
GUANGDONG WATER RESOURCES AND HYDROPOWER
2014年
2期
1-6
,共6页
TOPMODEL模型%不确定性%GLUE方法%似然函数%预测区间
TOPMODEL模型%不確定性%GLUE方法%似然函數%預測區間
TOPMODEL모형%불학정성%GLUE방법%사연함수%예측구간
TOPMODEL model%uncertainty%GLUE methodology%likelihood function%prediction interval
以丹江的西峡流域为研究对象，采用GLUE方法探讨TOPMODEL模型不确定性。分析不同似然函数算法、调节参数、模型参数和结果预测区间的不确定性，结果表明不同算法的似然函数值既有差异又有相似性，值变化会引起不同似然函数分布的变化，也影响模型参数与似然值的关系。分析不同阈值的90％置信区间的实测值覆盖率、预测区间宽度及预测区间对称性等特征，结果说明阈值越小，预测区间的可靠性越高，但不确定性范围越大；阈值越大则情况相反。说明选定似然函数和阈值时需综合考虑多方面因素。
以丹江的西峽流域為研究對象，採用GLUE方法探討TOPMODEL模型不確定性。分析不同似然函數算法、調節參數、模型參數和結果預測區間的不確定性，結果錶明不同算法的似然函數值既有差異又有相似性，值變化會引起不同似然函數分佈的變化，也影響模型參數與似然值的關繫。分析不同閾值的90％置信區間的實測值覆蓋率、預測區間寬度及預測區間對稱性等特徵，結果說明閾值越小，預測區間的可靠性越高，但不確定性範圍越大；閾值越大則情況相反。說明選定似然函數和閾值時需綜閤攷慮多方麵因素。
이단강적서협류역위연구대상，채용GLUE방법탐토TOPMODEL모형불학정성。분석불동사연함수산법、조절삼수、모형삼수화결과예측구간적불학정성，결과표명불동산법적사연함수치기유차이우유상사성，치변화회인기불동사연함수분포적변화，야영향모형삼수여사연치적관계。분석불동역치적90％치신구간적실측치복개솔、예측구간관도급예측구간대칭성등특정，결과설명역치월소，예측구간적가고성월고，단불학정성범위월대；역치월대칙정황상반。설명선정사연함수화역치시수종합고필다방면인소。
The GLUE methodology is applied to uncertainty analyses of TOPMODEL , with the Xixia catchment in Danjiang River as the research area .The uncertainties of different likelihood functions , shaping factor , model parameters and prediction interval are analyzed .It is shown that the likelihood values for different functions are different as well as similar , and the different distribution of each different likelihood function the relationship between the parameters and the likelihood measure are affected by a shaping fac -tor .Lastly the prediction interval characteristics of the 90%confidence level at different threshold values are calculated , such as the observation containing ratio , prediction interval width and precition interval symmetry .It is shown that the lower the threshold value is, the higher the reliability of the prediction interval is , and meanwhile the larger while the range of uncertainty is .It is concluded that many factors should be considered in selecting likelihood function and threshold value .
