西南林业大学学报
西南林業大學學報
서남임업대학학보
JOURNAL OF SOUTHWEST FORESTRY COLLEGE
2014年
2期
104-107
,共4页
方乐金%李丰伯%万志兵%吴俊%姚剑飞
方樂金%李豐伯%萬誌兵%吳俊%姚劍飛
방악금%리봉백%만지병%오준%요검비
黄山松%细纹新须螨%气象因素%回归模型%模拟预测
黃山鬆%細紋新鬚螨%氣象因素%迴歸模型%模擬預測
황산송%세문신수만%기상인소%회귀모형%모의예측
Pinus taiwanensis%Cenopalpus lineola%meteorological factors%regression model%simulation and prediction
在黄山风景区对黄山松细纹新须螨发生与气象因素的关系进行研究,结果表明:细纹新须螨发生与气温、降雨量、相对湿度等气候因子均有一定的关系。与细纹新须螨发生关系最为密切的气候因子为月均气温和旬均气温,曲线拟合结果与实际较吻合,细纹新须螨发生数量随温度升高而增加,当平均气温达到14℃以上,可用该曲线预测预报细纹新须螨发生的趋势;多个气候因子与细纹新须螨发生数量的回归分析表明,月均气温+月均降雨量+月均相对湿度、旬均气温+旬均降雨量、旬均降雨量+旬均相对湿度3个组合因子与细纹新须螨发生关系密切。采用旬均气温+旬均降雨量进行虫情预测预报,对指导防治具有实际应用意义。
在黃山風景區對黃山鬆細紋新鬚螨髮生與氣象因素的關繫進行研究,結果錶明:細紋新鬚螨髮生與氣溫、降雨量、相對濕度等氣候因子均有一定的關繫。與細紋新鬚螨髮生關繫最為密切的氣候因子為月均氣溫和旬均氣溫,麯線擬閤結果與實際較吻閤,細紋新鬚螨髮生數量隨溫度升高而增加,噹平均氣溫達到14℃以上,可用該麯線預測預報細紋新鬚螨髮生的趨勢;多箇氣候因子與細紋新鬚螨髮生數量的迴歸分析錶明,月均氣溫+月均降雨量+月均相對濕度、旬均氣溫+旬均降雨量、旬均降雨量+旬均相對濕度3箇組閤因子與細紋新鬚螨髮生關繫密切。採用旬均氣溫+旬均降雨量進行蟲情預測預報,對指導防治具有實際應用意義。
재황산풍경구대황산송세문신수만발생여기상인소적관계진행연구,결과표명:세문신수만발생여기온、강우량、상대습도등기후인자균유일정적관계。여세문신수만발생관계최위밀절적기후인자위월균기온화순균기온,곡선의합결과여실제교문합,세문신수만발생수량수온도승고이증가,당평균기온체도14℃이상,가용해곡선예측예보세문신수만발생적추세;다개기후인자여세문신수만발생수량적회귀분석표명,월균기온+월균강우량+월균상대습도、순균기온+순균강우량、순균강우량+순균상대습도3개조합인자여세문신수만발생관계밀절。채용순균기온+순균강우량진행충정예측예보,대지도방치구유실제응용의의。
The study on the relationship between meteorological factors and the occurrence of Cenopalpus lineo-la in Pinus taiwanensis plantation indicated that the occurrence of Cenopalpus lineola was related to the average tem-perature,rainfall,relative humidity and other meteorological factors.The monthly average temperature and the 10-day average temperature were most closely related to the occurrence of Cenopalpus lineola,and the simulated curves were well consistent with the actual results.The number of Cenopalpus lineola increased with temperature. When the average temperature was above 14℃,the occurence trend of Cenopalpus lineola could be forecast by the regression equation which had a high reference and application value.The regression analyses on the multiple mete-orological factors and the occurrence of Cenopalpus lineola showed that the number of Cenopalpus lineola was closely related with three groups of meteorological factor combinations,i.e.,the monthly average temperature +monthly average rainfall +monthly average relative humidity,10-day average temperature +10-day rainfall,and 10-day average rainfall +10-day relative humidity.The regression equation of 10-day average temperature +10-day average rainfall meteorological factor combinations with the occurrence of Cenopalpus lineola would be of practi-cal significance for guiding the pest control.