CAJ | 학술논문

本文对2001年11月以来的上海市二手房指数月份数据进行分析，表明其变化符合艾略特波浪理论的基本规律，且目前处于第5浪上升之中，在2014年8月~2015年12月期间，或当其进入3061~3423区间时，宜重点关注该浪乃至十余年的房产牛市是否出现明确滞涨见顶的信号。基于多周期均线，本文提出两个分别具有预警和报警的技术性指标：当二手房指数大于预警指标时，市场处于安全状态；当二手房指数跌破报警指标时，市场风险较大而须采取规避措施。由此评估，目前上海市二手房市场处于安全状态。本文研究结果可为上海市房地产市场管理和投资提供一种较为科学的评估方法。
본문대2001년11월이래적상해시이수방지수월빈수거진행분석，표명기변화부합애략특파랑이론적기본규률，차목전처우제5랑상승지중，재2014년8월~2015년12월기간，혹당기진입3061~3423구간시，의중점관주해랑내지십여년적방산우시시부출현명학체창견정적신호。기우다주기균선，본문제출량개분별구유예경화보경적기술성지표：당이수방지수대우예경지표시，시장처우안전상태；당이수방지수질파보경지표시，시장풍험교대이수채취규피조시。유차평고，목전상해시이수방시장처우안전상태。본문연구결과가위상해시방지산시장관리화투자제공일충교위과학적평고방법。
The variation of the Shanghai existing property index since November 2001 was compared with the Elliot wave theory herein. It showed that the index has been run upward in the fifth Elliot’ s wave at present and its target will be in 3061-3423 from August 2014 to December 2015 . Based on 4 moving averages referenced on the technical analysis methods in stock trading, an early warning index and a warning index were proposed to evaluate the risk levels of Shanghai existing property index turning downward, which showed a safe real estate market in Shanghai till December 2013. This paper could be useful to improve the management policy and investment decision in Shanghai real estate market.