CAJ | 학술논문

BT融资模式是加快城镇化发展过程中，大型基础设施项目建设的主要融资方式，准确地对BT工程项目的风险等级进行评价，有助于降低投资人的风险损失。为了更好地评价BT工程项目的风险等级，克服传统风险分析方法的不足，建立BP神经网络模型。本文以A市地铁BT工程项目为例，首先建立该项目的风险评价指标体系，然后确定合适的BP神经网络模型参数。在大量经验数据的基础上，对BP神经网络模型进行了训练与检测，通过试验发现构建18-17-1三层BP神经网络模型对风险等级的评价结果精度最高。最后通过此模型对A市地铁BT工程项目的风险等级进行了评价，取得较好的效果。
BT융자모식시가쾌성진화발전과정중，대형기출설시항목건설적주요융자방식，준학지대BT공정항목적풍험등급진행평개，유조우강저투자인적풍험손실。위료경호지평개BT공정항목적풍험등급，극복전통풍험분석방법적불족，건립BP신경망락모형。본문이A시지철BT공정항목위례，수선건립해항목적풍험평개지표체계，연후학정합괄적BP신경망락모형삼수。재대량경험수거적기출상，대BP신경망락모형진행료훈련여검측，통과시험발현구건18-17-1삼층BP신경망락모형대풍험등급적평개결과정도최고。최후통과차모형대A시지철BT공정항목적풍험등급진행료평개，취득교호적효과。
BT financing mode is the main financing large infrastructure projects in the rapid development of urbanization. Accurate evaluation of BT project’ s risk helps to reduce the investor’ s risk loss. In order to better evaluating the BT project’ s risk level and overcoming the shortcomings of the traditional risk analysis methods, a BP neural network model has been used in this paper. BT project’s risk level of a city’s subway as an example in the paper. Firstly,establish the project risk evaluation index system and determine the appropriate parameters of BP neural network . Meanwhile, based on a large amount of empirical data,the BP neural network model is trained and detected. The experiment showed that the evaluation results on the risk which base on the construction of 18-17-1 three layers BP neural model has a high accuracy. Finally,BT project’ s risk level of a city’ s subway was evaluated by the model and good results have been received.