CAJ | 학술논문

考虑新产品投入市场时潜在市场需求不确定下的供应链风险厌恶，构造了一个考虑制造商和零售商的效用函数，建立了基于广告费用、服务水平以及销售价格的最优短期决策模型，分析了需求风险和供应链成员风险容忍水平对供应链最优短期决策的影响，采用数值仿真分析了供应链最优长期决策。研究结果表明：最优广告费用分别是需求风险和风险容忍水平的单调递增和递减函数，最优销售价格和服务水平则因行业等因素不同与需求风险和风险容忍水平呈U型或倒U型关系；当市场环境变化时，销售价格和服务水平在不同市场条件下应做出不同调整，而广告费用调整与市场特征无关；从长期来看制造商可以达到效用最大化，而零售商效用只能次优。
고필신산품투입시장시잠재시장수구불학정하적공응련풍험염악，구조료일개고필제조상화령수상적효용함수，건립료기우엄고비용、복무수평이급소수개격적최우단기결책모형，분석료수구풍험화공응련성원풍험용인수평대공응련최우단기결책적영향，채용수치방진분석료공응련최우장기결책。연구결과표명：최우엄고비용분별시수구풍험화풍험용인수평적단조체증화체감함수，최우소수개격화복무수평칙인행업등인소불동여수구풍험화풍험용인수평정U형혹도U형관계；당시장배경변화시，소수개격화복무수평재불동시장조건하응주출불동조정，이엄고비용조정여시장특정무관；종장기래간제조상가이체도효용최대화，이령수상효용지능차우。
When a new product is put into market , it is necessary to consider supply chain risk aversion under the uncertainty of market demands .For such a problem , a utility function for manufacturers and re-tailers is constructed.Also, based on advertising cost, levels of service, and selling prices, an optimal short-term decision-making model is established .Then, with the model, effects of the demand risk and the risk tolerance level of members in a supply chain on the optimal short-term decisions for the supply chain is analyzed .Through numerical simulation , the optimal long-term decisions for a supply chain are also ana-lyzed .Results indicate that the optimal advertising cost is a monotonically increasing function of demand risk and a monotonically decreasing function of risk tolerance level .The best selling price and the optimal service level , as differing from an industry to another and other factors , are U-shape or inverted U-shape with the change of demand risk and risk tolerance level .The selling price and the service level need to make different adjustments in different conditions of market when the circumstance of market is changing . The adjustment of advertising cost has nothing to do with the market features .In the long run , the manu-facturers can achieve the utility maximization , while the retailer can only make the utility suboptimal .